Warren County, Kentucky: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Warren County, Kentucky has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.5 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with hail, tornadoes and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $80 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations that included Warren County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 32 tornadoes touching Warren County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Kentucky All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 134,482 Buildings worth $28 billion Area 553 sq mi Risk rank in Kentucky 5 of 120 FIPS 21227
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | Very High | 99.5 | $23 million | about 3.1 a year | 119 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 93.1 | $10 million | about once every 2.4 years | 26 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.7 | $6.2 million | about once every 293 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 90.1 | $1.0 million | about once every 1.4 years | 50 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 87.3 | $32 million | about 2.5 a year | 71 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | $1.8 million | about 6.1 a year | 91 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.0 | $3.6 million | about once every 1.1 years | 17 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | $1.3 million | about 6.1 a year | 232 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 75.7 | $657,980 | about 55 a year | 142,930 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 75.2 | $181,179 | about 7 a year | 133 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 44.2 | $45,866 | about once every 99 years | 2 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 43.6 | $99,286 | about 2.4 a year | 77 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 36.4 | $542 | about once every 2.1 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 18.5 | $7,231 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 24
Most common: Severe Storm 10, Tornado 4, Flood 3, Snowstorm 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 3 | Tornado ×2, Flood |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×3, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 4 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 10 | Severe Storm ×6, Tornado ×2, Winter Storm, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Warren County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3633-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3626-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides (2025, EM-3624-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Kentucky also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 32
| Tornadoes touching the county | 32 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×4 |
| Peak month | May (7) |
| Deadliest | 11 Dec 2021, EF3, 29.3 mi path, 16 killed, 63 injured |
| Longest path | 26 May 2024, EF1, 40 mi path |
| Most recent | 26 May 2024, EF1, 40 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 21 / 139 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Warren County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 88.5 | Hail |
| Edmonson County | 29 km | Very Low | 11.0 | Hail |
| Simpson County | 31 km | Very Low | 27.0 | Hail |
| Butler County | 33 km | Very Low | 18.1 | Hail |
| Allen County | 34 km | Very Low | 33.3 | Hail |
| Logan County | 43 km | Relatively Low | 54.6 | Cold wave |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Kentucky, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 30.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 68.4 |
| Community risk factor | 0.97 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $80 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Warren County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Kentucky · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hail: Weather alerts for Kentucky
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Warren County
What natural disasters is Warren County, Kentucky most at risk from?
Warren County, Kentucky has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.5 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with hail, tornadoes and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $80 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Warren County had?
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations that included Warren County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 4 Kentucky declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Warren County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 32 tornadoes touching Warren County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 11 Dec 2021, EF3, 29.3 mi path, 16 killed, 63 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.