Frederick County, Maryland: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Frederick County, Maryland has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 74.2 out of 100, higher than about 74% of US counties, with winter storms, heat waves and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $50 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Frederick County since 1971, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3634-MD (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 35 tornadoes touching Frederick County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Maryland All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 271,433 Buildings worth $56 billion Area 674 sq mi Risk rank in Maryland 6 of 24 FIPS 24021
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 90.6 | $644,887 | about 14 a year | 272 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.1 | $3.1 million | about 4.2 a year | 71 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 82.2 | $1.2 million | about 37 a year | 187,198 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81.6 | $32 million | about 4.7 a year | 131 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 80.4 | $2.0 million | about 7.7 a year | 293 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79.3 | $2.6 million | about once every 11 years | 32 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 74.9 | $1.1 million | about 3.8 a year | 144 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 74.6 | $1.7 million | about once every 917 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 72.0 | $898,243 | about 4 a year | 161 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 67.2 | $3.5 million | about once every 2.2 years | 29 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 66.8 | $6,643 | about once every 1.7 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 53.8 | $151,192 | about once a year | 68 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 32.3 | $710,396 | about 1.8 a year | 34 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 27.6 | $18,765 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 21.5 | $66 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 21
Most common: Hurricane 6, Snowstorm 5, Flood 5, Severe Storm 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 5 | Flood ×4, Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×3, Hurricane, Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2010s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 1 | Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Frederick County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3634-MD): 24 Maryland counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, DR-4091-MD): 24 Maryland counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3349-MD): 24 Maryland counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Fran (1996), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Maryland also had 1 statewide declaration with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 35
| Tornadoes touching the county | 35 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (8) |
| Deadliest | 5 Apr 1952, F1, 1 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Longest path | 19 Jul 1963, F1, 14.4 mi path |
| Most recent | 3 May 2021, EF0, 0.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 1 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 10 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Frederick County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 74.2 | Winter weather |
| Carroll County | 34 km | Relatively Low | 59.5 | Strong wind |
| Washington County | 39 km | Relatively Low | 68.8 | Drought |
| Montgomery County | 41 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.7 | Winter weather |
| Jefferson County, WV | 44 km | Relatively Low | 47.8 | Drought |
| Adams County, PA | 47 km | Relatively Low | 67.5 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Maryland, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 77.8 |
| Community risk factor | 0.69 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $50 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Frederick County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Maryland · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Maryland
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Frederick County
What natural disasters is Frederick County, Maryland most at risk from?
Frederick County, Maryland has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 74.2 out of 100, higher than about 74% of US counties, with winter storms, heat waves and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $50 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Frederick County had?
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Frederick County since 1971, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3634-MD (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 1 Maryland declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Frederick County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 35 tornadoes touching Frederick County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 5 Apr 1952, F1, 1 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.