Butler County, Missouri: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Butler County, Missouri has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.1 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with earthquakes, heat waves and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $46 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Butler County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4872-MO (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 21 May 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 48 tornadoes touching Butler County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 42,051 Buildings worth $9.6 billion Area 706 sq mi Risk rank in Missouri 14 of 115 FIPS 29023
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 95.1 | $13 million | about once every 89 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 93.5 | $4.3 million | about 12 a year | 162 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 91.5 | $986,894 | about 1.3 a year | 85 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 90.1 | $6.6 million | about once every 1.9 years | 43 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 83.5 | $227,341 | about 7 a year | 133 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 82.6 | $1.3 million | about 2.4 a year | 92 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 79.1 | $17 million | about 3.6 a year | 100 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 76.2 | $9,578 | about once every 1.1 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 64.4 | $367,925 | about 58 a year | 159,629 strikes |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 57.3 | $1.1 million | about 1.1 a year | 20 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 53.8 | $176,173 | about 6.5 a year | 273 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 44.0 | $38,454 | about once every 52 years | 6 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 39.4 | $22,989 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 33.0 | $123,658 | about 3.1 a year | 117 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 21
Most common: Severe Storm 13, Flood 3, Severe Ice Storm 3, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Severe Storm |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 9 | Severe Storm ×5, Severe Ice Storm ×3, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 4 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 4 | Severe Storm ×4 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Butler County
- Severe Winter Storm (2011, EM-3317-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2009, EM-3303-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2007, EM-3281-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Missouri also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 48
| Tornadoes touching the county | 48 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (12) |
| Deadliest | 21 Feb 1976, F3, 23.7 mi path, 1 killed, 16 injured |
| Longest path | 26 May 2024, EF2, 45.5 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Most recent | 2 Apr 2025, EF1, 13.4 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 2 / 51 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 18 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 8 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Butler County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 83.1 | Earthquake |
| Clay County, AR | 39 km | Relatively Low | 71.6 | Drought |
| Ripley County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 57.0 | Earthquake |
| Stoddard County | 44 km | Relatively Low | 74.3 | Earthquake |
| Wayne County | 44 km | Relatively Low | 67.0 | Earthquake |
| Carter County | 55 km | Relatively Low | 53.9 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Missouri, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 49.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 29.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.14 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $46 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Butler County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Missouri · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Butler County
What natural disasters is Butler County, Missouri most at risk from?
Butler County, Missouri has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.1 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with earthquakes, heat waves and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $46 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Butler County had?
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Butler County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4872-MO (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 21 May 2025). Another 4 Missouri declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Butler County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 48 tornadoes touching Butler County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 21 Feb 1976, F3, 23.7 mi path, 1 killed, 16 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.