Caldwell County, Missouri: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Caldwell County, Missouri has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 14.4 out of 100, higher than about 14% of US counties, with drought, cold waves and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $4.9 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Caldwell County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4612-MO (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 1 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Caldwell County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Missouri All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 8,773 Buildings worth $2.2 billion Area 434 sq mi Risk rank in Missouri 108 of 115 FIPS 29025
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 67.2 | $367,572 | about 15 a year | 455 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 53.2 | $898,525 | about 3.5 a year | 66 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 49.8 | $308,297 | about 11 a year | 135 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 48.0 | $1,010 | about once every 8.3 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 45.4 | $29,597 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 44.2 | $176,604 | about 6.6 a year | 250 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 37.7 | $644,978 | about once every 4.2 years | 7 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 37.2 | $38,913 | about once every 1.6 years | 43 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 28.8 | $23,623 | about 11 a year | 203 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 25.2 | $38,265 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 23.1 | $66,626 | about 48 a year | 103,357 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 21.9 | $2.2 million | about once every 2.2 years | 13 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 20.6 | $157,843 | about 4.9 a year | 188 |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Severe Storm 10, Flood 5, Severe Ice Storm 4, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 5 | Flood ×2, Drought, Tornado, Severe Storm |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Ice Storm ×4, Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 5 | Severe Storm ×5 |
| 2020s | 1 | Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Caldwell County
- Severe Winter Storm (2011, EM-3317-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2009, EM-3303-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2007, EM-3281-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Missouri also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 11
| Tornadoes touching the county | 11 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | March (2) |
| Deadliest | 23 Apr 1975, F4, 11.4 mi path, 1 killed, 3 injured |
| Longest path | 8 Mar 1974, F1, 27.4 mi path |
| Most recent | 24 Oct 2021, EF1, 4.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 4 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Caldwell County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caldwell County (this page) | — | Very Low | 14.4 | Drought |
| Ray County | 34 km | Relatively Low | 44.4 | Landslide |
| Daviess County | 34 km | Very Low | 30.1 | Drought |
| Clinton County | 37 km | Relatively Low | 56.2 | Hail |
| Livingston County | 40 km | Very Low | 23.0 | Drought |
| DeKalb County | 45 km | Very Low | 16.0 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Missouri, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 63.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 59.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.24 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $4.9 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Caldwell County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Missouri · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Missouri
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Caldwell County
What natural disasters is Caldwell County, Missouri most at risk from?
Caldwell County, Missouri has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 14.4 out of 100, higher than about 14% of US counties, with drought, cold waves and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $4.9 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Caldwell County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Caldwell County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4612-MO (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 1 September 2021). Another 4 Missouri declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Caldwell County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Caldwell County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 23 Apr 1975, F4, 11.4 mi path, 1 killed, 3 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.