Carroll County, Missouri: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carroll County, Missouri has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 32.6 out of 100, higher than about 32% of US counties, with drought, tornadoes and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.4 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 27 federal disaster declarations that included Carroll County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4924-MO (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 30 June 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Carroll County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Missouri All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 8,482 Buildings worth $2.5 billion Area 709 sq mi Risk rank in Missouri 79 of 115 FIPS 29033
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 81.6 | $919,453 | about 13 a year | 378 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 56.8 | $1.4 million | about once every 2.9 years | 10 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 53.8 | $399,341 | about 11 a year | 140 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 53.5 | $971,918 | about 2.6 a year | 49 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.4 | $1,414 | about once every 6.0 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 45.4 | $5.2 million | about 2.4 a year | 68 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 43.9 | $29,399 | about once every 952 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 36.5 | $110,604 | about once every 719 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 35.4 | $33,544 | about 11 a year | 201 |
| Hail | Very Low | 33.4 | $123,105 | about 5.6 a year | 211 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 28.8 | $26,507 | about once every 1.4 years | 50 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 27.2 | $87,726 | about 49 a year | 75,981 strikes |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 19.8 | $158,730 | about 4.1 a year | 157 |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 27
Most common: Severe Storm 14, Flood 7, Severe Ice Storm 3, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 5 | Flood ×2, Tornado, Drought, Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood |
| 2000s | 9 | Severe Storm ×5, Severe Ice Storm ×3, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 7 | Severe Storm ×4, Flood ×3 |
| 2020s | 2 | Severe Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Carroll County
- Severe Winter Storm (2011, EM-3317-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2009, EM-3303-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2007, EM-3281-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Missouri also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 17
| Tornadoes touching the county | 17 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (5) |
| Deadliest | 8 Apr 1999, F2, 53.5 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 8 Apr 1999, F2, 53.5 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 6 Mar 2017, EF0, 6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 4 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carroll County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll County (this page) | — | Very Low | 32.6 | Drought |
| Livingston County | 40 km | Very Low | 23.0 | Drought |
| Saline County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 51.6 | Drought |
| Ray County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 44.4 | Landslide |
| Lafayette County | 47 km | Relatively Low | 52.5 | Cold wave |
| Chariton County | 48 km | Very Low | 29.4 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Missouri, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 55.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 84.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.16 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $9.4 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carroll County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Missouri · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Missouri
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carroll County
What natural disasters is Carroll County, Missouri most at risk from?
Carroll County, Missouri has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 32.6 out of 100, higher than about 32% of US counties, with drought, tornadoes and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.4 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carroll County had?
OpenFEMA lists 27 federal disaster declarations that included Carroll County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4924-MO (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 30 June 2026). Another 4 Missouri declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carroll County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Carroll County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 8 Apr 1999, F2, 53.5 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.