Madison County, Missouri: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Madison County, Missouri has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 50.9 out of 100, higher than about 50% of US counties, with heat waves, earthquakes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $15 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations that included Madison County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4939-MO (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared 1 September 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 37 tornadoes touching Madison County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Missouri All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 12,581 Buildings worth $3.0 billion Area 503 sq mi Risk rank in Missouri 62 of 115 FIPS 29123
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.2 | $1.8 million | about 11 a year | 138 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 81.3 | $1.7 million | about once every 144 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 76.0 | $2.6 million | about 1.3 a year | 24 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 67.8 | $4,340 | about 1.6 a year | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 59.4 | $79,783 | about 8.3 a year | 157 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 55.8 | $584,483 | about 3.6 a year | 136 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 54.3 | $6.8 million | about once every 1.2 years | 23 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 51.9 | $1.2 million | about once every 2.8 years | 26 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 35.4 | $38,595 | about once every 1.1 years | 64 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 33.7 | $16,924 | about once every 45 years | 6 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 33.4 | $112,568 | about 56 a year | 52,768 strikes |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 30.2 | $13,012 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 29.8 | $106,072 | about 3.8 a year | 143 |
| Drought | Very Low | 16.4 | $1,136 | about 3.6 a year | 119 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 24
Most common: Severe Storm 17, Severe Ice Storm 3, Flood 2, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 9 | Severe Storm ×5, Severe Ice Storm ×3, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Flood ×2 |
| 2020s | 6 | Severe Storm ×6 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Madison County
- Severe Winter Storm (2011, EM-3317-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2009, EM-3303-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2007, EM-3281-MO): 115 Missouri counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Missouri also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 37
| Tornadoes touching the county | 37 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×3 |
| Peak month | May (14) |
| Deadliest | 14 Mar 2025, EF3, 29.9 mi path, 3 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 25 May 2011, EF3, 47.4 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 14 Mar 2025, EF3, 29.9 mi path, 3 killed, 2 injured |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 14 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 7 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Madison County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 50.9 | Heat wave |
| Bollinger County | 33 km | Very Low | 26.3 | Earthquake |
| St. Francois County | 39 km | Relatively Low | 78.5 | Heat wave |
| Iron County | 39 km | Relatively Low | 69.5 | Heat wave |
| Wayne County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 67.0 | Earthquake |
| Ste. Genevieve County | 48 km | Relatively Low | 54.6 | Heat wave |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Missouri, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 52.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 50.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.15 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $15 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Madison County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Missouri · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Madison County
What natural disasters is Madison County, Missouri most at risk from?
Madison County, Missouri has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 50.9 out of 100, higher than about 50% of US counties, with heat waves, earthquakes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $15 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Madison County had?
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations that included Madison County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4939-MO (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared 1 September 2026). Another 4 Missouri declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Madison County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 37 tornadoes touching Madison County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 14 Mar 2025, EF3, 29.9 mi path, 3 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.