Lake County, Montana: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Lake County, Montana has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 67.7 out of 100, higher than about 67% of US counties, with winter storms, wildfires and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $23 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Lake County since 2000, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4902-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared 7 April 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 4 tornadoes touching Lake County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 31,051 Buildings worth $8.0 billion Area 1,671 sq mi Risk rank in Montana 8 of 56 FIPS 30047
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 94.4 | $531,945 | about 44 a year | 818 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.7 | $1.8 million | about once every 444 years | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 92.3 | $6.6 million | about once every 36 years | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 91.4 | $1.6 million | about once every 4.3 years | 7 |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 90.8 | $53,367 | about 1.4 a year | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.8 | $4.5 million | about 4.5 a year | 85 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 72.7 | $219,639 | about once every 10 years | 6 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 57.2 | $7.1 million | about once every 2.3 years | 12 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 38.7 | $183,837 | about 1.4 a year | 20 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 37.2 | $125,414 | about 21 a year | 69,489 strikes |
| Drought | Very Low | 24.0 | $8,496 | about 24 a year | 784 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 11.5 | $75,024 | about once every 4.1 years | 10 |
| Hail | Very Low | 11.2 | $30,976 | about once every 2.6 years | 15 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 3.3 | $7,217 | about once every 38 years | 4 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 6
Most common: Flood 2, Fire 2, Straight-Line Winds 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 2000s | 3 | Fire ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 2020s | 1 | Straight-Line Winds |
The last 6
Widest declarations that included Lake County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3253-MT): 56 Montana counties designated.
- Wildfires (2000, DR-1340-MT): 48 Montana counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (2026, DR-4902-MT): 28 Montana counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Montana also had 18 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 4
| Tornadoes touching the county | 4 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×4 |
| Peak month | March (1) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 18 Jul 2007, EF0, 1 mi path |
| Most recent | 9 May 2023, EF0, 0.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Lake County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 67.7 | Winter weather |
| Missoula County | 69 km | Relatively Low | 77.0 | Wildfire |
| Flathead County | 72 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | Avalanche |
| Sanders County | 78 km | Relatively Low | 47.4 | Landslide |
| Mineral County | 88 km | Very Low | 7.3 | Landslide |
| Powell County | 123 km | Very Low | 10.0 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Montana, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 58.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 51.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.21 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $23 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Lake County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Montana · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Lake County
What natural disasters is Lake County, Montana most at risk from?
Lake County, Montana has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 67.7 out of 100, higher than about 67% of US counties, with winter storms, wildfires and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $23 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Lake County had?
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Lake County since 2000, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4902-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared 7 April 2026). Another 18 Montana declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Lake County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 4 tornadoes touching Lake County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.