Missoula County, Montana: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Missoula County, Montana has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 77.0 out of 100, higher than about 77% of US counties, with wildfires, landslides and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $57 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Missoula County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4902-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared 7 April 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 2 tornadoes touching Missoula County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Montana All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 117,719 Buildings worth $25 billion Area 2,644 sq mi Risk rank in Montana 6 of 56 FIPS 30063
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.8 | $6.8 million | about once every 151 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 95.1 | $201,998 | about 2.1 a year | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 93.1 | $14 million | about 3.4 a year | 66 |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 91.5 | $2.9 million | about once every 5.0 years | 6 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 91.3 | $10 million | about once every 76 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 89.9 | $1.4 million | about once every 5.2 years | 13 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.6 | $331,143 | about 51 a year | 966 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 68.6 | $19 million | about once a year | 29 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 64.0 | $605,249 | about 22 a year | 121,872 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 53.5 | $675,288 | about 1.2 a year | 15 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 21.1 | $292,491 | about once every 3.6 years | 11 |
| Drought | Very Low | 16.0 | $1,452 | about 29 a year | 1,246 |
| Hail | Very Low | 13.3 | $66,725 | about once every 2.2 years | 17 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.1 | $101,460 | about once every 25 years | 2 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 19
Most common: Fire 8, Severe Storm 4, Flood 3, Straight-Line Winds 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 7 | Fire ×5, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 5 | Fire ×3, Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 2 | Straight-Line Winds ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Missoula County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3253-MT): 56 Montana counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2011, DR-1996-MT): 49 Montana counties designated.
- Wildfires (2000, DR-1340-MT): 48 Montana counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Montana also had 18 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 2
| Tornadoes touching the county | 2 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×2 |
| Peak month | July (1) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 20 Jul 1983, F0, 2 mi path |
| Most recent | 7 Aug 1995, F0, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Missoula County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missoula County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 77.0 | Wildfire |
| Lake County | 69 km | Relatively Low | 67.7 | Winter weather |
| Powell County | 77 km | Very Low | 10.0 | Landslide |
| Granite County | 79 km | Very Low | 9.4 | Landslide |
| Mineral County | 82 km | Very Low | 7.3 | Landslide |
| Ravalli County | 107 km | Relatively Low | 78.5 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Montana, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 79.5 |
| Community risk factor | 0.68 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $57 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Missoula County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Montana · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Missoula County
What natural disasters is Missoula County, Montana most at risk from?
Missoula County, Montana has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 77.0 out of 100, higher than about 77% of US counties, with wildfires, landslides and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $57 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Missoula County had?
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Missoula County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4902-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared 7 April 2026). Another 18 Montana declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Missoula County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 2 tornadoes touching Missoula County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.