Box Butte County, Nebraska: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Box Butte County, Nebraska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 21.0 out of 100, higher than about 21% of US counties, with drought, hail and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.4 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Box Butte County since 2001, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4616-NE (Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds, declared 6 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 43 tornadoes touching Box Butte County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 10,810 Buildings worth $2.9 billion Area 1,089 sq mi Risk rank in Nebraska 48 of 93 FIPS 31013
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 96.6 | $3.9 million | about 84 a year | 2,233 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 80.3 | $1.0 million | about 4.7 a year | 179 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 68.3 | $137,092 | about 15 a year | 289 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 61.3 | $103,239 | about once every 800 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 53.3 | $298,202 | about 44 a year | 63,182 strikes |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 51.5 | $101,789 | about once every 34 years | 3 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 48.3 | $998,104 | about 5.8 a year | 110 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 32.6 | $107,519 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 31.1 | $611,343 | about once every 2.0 years | 34 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 20.0 | $203,615 | about 1.4 a year | 54 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 10.0 | $20,571 | about once every 1.6 years | 8 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 5.9 | $955,350 | about once every 9.3 years | 3 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 5.0 | $8 | about once every 6.1 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 7
Most common: Severe Storm 5, Flood 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 2000s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood |
| 2020s | 1 | Severe Storm |
The last 7
Widest declarations that included Box Butte County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuees (2005, EM-3245-NE): 93 Nebraska counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (2019, DR-4420-NE): 84 Nebraska counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (2015, DR-4225-NE): 28 Nebraska counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Nebraska also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 43
| Tornadoes touching the county | 43 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (16) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 25 Jun 1975, F1, 68 mi path |
| Most recent | 20 Sep 2019, unrated, 10.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 27 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Box Butte County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Butte County (this page) | — | Very Low | 21.0 | Drought |
| Dawes County | 56 km | Very Low | 5.6 | Wildfire |
| Morrill County | 56 km | Very Low | 27.8 | Drought |
| Sioux County | 63 km | Very Low | 1.4 | Drought |
| Sheridan County | 64 km | Very Low | 13.4 | Wildfire |
| Scotts Bluff County | 66 km | Relatively Low | 63.8 | Hail |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Nebraska, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 23.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 38.9 |
| Community risk factor | 0.93 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $8.4 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Box Butte County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Nebraska · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Nebraska
- Hail: Weather alerts for Nebraska
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Box Butte County
What natural disasters is Box Butte County, Nebraska most at risk from?
Box Butte County, Nebraska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 21.0 out of 100, higher than about 21% of US counties, with drought, hail and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.4 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Box Butte County had?
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Box Butte County since 2001, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4616-NE (Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds, declared 6 September 2021). Another 6 Nebraska declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Box Butte County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 43 tornadoes touching Box Butte County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.