Ocean County, New Jersey: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Ocean County, New Jersey has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.2 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with strong winds, winter storms and coastal flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $204 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Ocean County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5581-NJ (Jones Road Fire, declared 24 April 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 20 tornadoes touching Ocean County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 636,993 Buildings worth $119 billion Area 924 sq mi Risk rank in New Jersey 6 of 21 FIPS 34029
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Very High | 99.9 | $39 million | about 4.4 a year | 136 |
| Winter weather | Very High | 99.4 | $2.2 million | about 9.4 a year | 126 |
| Coastal flooding | Very High | 98.2 | $19 million | about 3.7 a year | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.9 | $2.8 million | about 3 a year | 355,477 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 96.7 | $100 million | about 3.4 a year | 96 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.7 | $6.6 million | about 6.8 a year | 73 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.2 | $3.6 million | about once every 332 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 94.5 | $1.4 million | about once every 2.5 years | 22 |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 93.2 | $13 million | about once every 5.0 years | 70 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 92.2 | $7.2 million | about once every 568 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 90.5 | $7.2 million | about once every 1.3 years | 11 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 62.8 | $318,189 | about 7.1 a year | 231 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 60.5 | $365,565 | about 1.4 a year | 59 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 56.5 | $2,016 | about once every 9.3 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 47.2 | $1.1 million | about once every 4.1 years | 15 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 31
Most common: Hurricane 8, Snowstorm 6, Fire 4, Severe Storm 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Drought |
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood, Drought |
| 1990s | 6 | Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane, Coastal Storm, Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 7 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm, Hurricane, Snowstorm, Other |
| 2010s | 8 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm ×2, Snowstorm ×2 |
| 2020s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Fire, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Ocean County
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, DR-4614-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, EM-3573-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, DR-4086-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Irene (2011), Tropical Depression Ida (2009), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Floyd (1999).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Jersey also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 20
| Tornadoes touching the county | 20 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (7) |
| Deadliest | 29 Jul 2021, EF2, 4.2 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured |
| Longest path | 10 Mar 1964, F1, 59.1 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured |
| Most recent | 1 Apr 2023, EF2, 2.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 14 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Ocean County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 96.2 | Strong wind |
| Burlington County | 32 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.6 | Strong wind |
| Monmouth County | 39 km | Relatively High | 96.3 | Strong wind |
| Mercer County | 54 km | Relatively High | 95.4 | Strong wind |
| Atlantic County | 58 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.0 | Strong wind |
| Camden County | 58 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.2 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Jersey, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 48.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 90.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.10 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $204 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Ocean County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Jersey · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Coastal flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Hurricanes and storms now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Ocean County
What natural disasters is Ocean County, New Jersey most at risk from?
Ocean County, New Jersey has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.2 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with strong winds, winter storms and coastal flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $204 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Ocean County had?
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Ocean County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5581-NJ (Jones Road Fire, declared 24 April 2025). Another 2 New Jersey declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Ocean County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 20 tornadoes touching Ocean County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 29 Jul 2021, EF2, 4.2 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.