Monmouth County, New Jersey: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Monmouth County, New Jersey has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.3 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with strong winds, heat waves and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $282 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations that included Monmouth County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4614-NJ (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 15 tornadoes touching Monmouth County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 643,237 Buildings worth $164 billion Area 668 sq mi Risk rank in New Jersey 5 of 21 FIPS 34025
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Very High | 100.0 | $91 million | about 5.8 a year | 175 |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 98.6 | $24 million | about 6.7 a year | 72 |
| Lightning | Very High | 98.5 | $4.2 million | about 32 a year | 383,244 strikes |
| Winter weather | Very High | 97.5 | $1.4 million | about 9.2 a year | 126 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 95.8 | $110 million | about 3.5 a year | 99 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 94.4 | $1.8 million | about once every 1.4 years | 37 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 94.0 | $14 million | about once every 518 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 93.1 | $17 million | about once every 5.6 years | 58 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively High | 90.2 | $7.6 million | about 3.7 a year | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 88.8 | $1.4 million | about once every 813 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.0 | $7.0 million | about once every 1.2 years | 12 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 71.7 | $724,598 | about 4 a year | 182 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 55.1 | $1.8 million | about once every 4.8 years | 10 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 34.4 | $535 | about once every 7.3 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 30.1 | $148,001 | about 1.9 a year | 80 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 26
Most common: Hurricane 10, Snowstorm 4, Flood 4, Severe Storm 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Drought |
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 1980s | 3 | Hurricane, Flood, Drought |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane, Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 4 | Hurricane, Snowstorm, Fire, Other |
| 2010s | 7 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm ×2, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 3 | Hurricane ×3 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Monmouth County
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, DR-4614-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, EM-3573-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, DR-4086-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Tropical Storm Isaias (2020), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Gloria (1985).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Jersey also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 15
| Tornadoes touching the county | 15 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×4 |
| Peak month | April (4) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 10 Aug 1952, F1, 39.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 1 Apr 2023, EF1, 4 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Monmouth County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 96.3 | Strong wind |
| Middlesex County | 26 km | Relatively High | 97.8 | Strong wind |
| Richmond County, NY | 36 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.0 | Heat wave |
| Ocean County | 39 km | Relatively High | 96.2 | Strong wind |
| Mercer County | 40 km | Relatively High | 95.4 | Strong wind |
| Union County | 45 km | Relatively High | 95.5 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Jersey, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 15.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 91.0 |
| Community risk factor | 0.84 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $282 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Monmouth County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Jersey · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Lightning: Weather alerts for New Jersey
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Monmouth County
What natural disasters is Monmouth County, New Jersey most at risk from?
Monmouth County, New Jersey has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.3 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with strong winds, heat waves and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $282 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Monmouth County had?
OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations that included Monmouth County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4614-NJ (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). Another 2 New Jersey declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Monmouth County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 15 tornadoes touching Monmouth County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.