Middlesex County, New Jersey: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Middlesex County, New Jersey has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 97.8 out of 100, higher than about 97% of US counties, with strong winds, winter storms and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $282 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 28 federal disaster declarations that included Middlesex County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4614-NJ (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 8 tornadoes touching Middlesex County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 862,614 Buildings worth $197 billion Area 326 sq mi Risk rank in New Jersey 2 of 21 FIPS 34023
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Very High | 99.7 | $14 million | about 7 a year | 264 |
| Winter weather | Very High | 99.6 | $2.2 million | about 11 a year | 201 |
| Ice storm | Very High | 99.2 | $3.7 million | about once a year | 70 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 98.9 | $197 million | about 3.2 a year | 89 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 96.5 | $7.7 million | about 7.5 a year | 111 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.2 | $20 million | about once every 495 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 94.5 | $10 million | about once every 8.1 years | 9 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 94.3 | $10.0 million | about once every 1.2 years | 16 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 92.6 | $12 million | about once every 8.7 years | 34 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively High | 83.6 | $3.0 million | about 3.8 a year | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | $742,690 | about 34 a year | 396,426 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 79.7 | $376,175 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 75.0 | $654,928 | about 3 a year | 77 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 73.3 | $7,585 | about once every 9.9 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 42.3 | $180,573 | about 2.4 a year | 93 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 28
Most common: Hurricane 9, Severe Storm 5, Flood 5, Snowstorm 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood, Drought |
| 1970s | 4 | Flood ×3, Severe Ice Storm |
| 1980s | 1 | Drought |
| 1990s | 6 | Hurricane ×2, Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm, Hurricane, Snowstorm, Fire, Other |
| 2010s | 8 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm ×3, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 2 | Hurricane ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Middlesex County
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, DR-4614-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, EM-3573-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, DR-4086-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Floyd (1999).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Jersey also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 8
| Tornadoes touching the county | 8 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×2 |
| Peak month | July (2) |
| Deadliest | 5 Oct 1985, F1, 12 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured |
| Longest path | 5 Oct 1985, F1, 12 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured |
| Most recent | 27 Oct 2003, F0, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 9 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Middlesex County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 97.8 | Strong wind |
| Somerset County | 22 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.9 | Inland flooding |
| Monmouth County | 26 km | Relatively High | 96.3 | Strong wind |
| Union County | 26 km | Relatively High | 95.5 | Strong wind |
| Richmond County, NY | 27 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.0 | Heat wave |
| Mercer County | 30 km | Relatively High | 95.4 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Jersey, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 47.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 45.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.12 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $282 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Middlesex County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Jersey · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Middlesex County
What natural disasters is Middlesex County, New Jersey most at risk from?
Middlesex County, New Jersey has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 97.8 out of 100, higher than about 97% of US counties, with strong winds, winter storms and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $282 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Middlesex County had?
OpenFEMA lists 28 federal disaster declarations that included Middlesex County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4614-NJ (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). Another 2 New Jersey declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Middlesex County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 8 tornadoes touching Middlesex County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 5 Oct 1985, F1, 12 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.