Chaves County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Chaves County, New Mexico has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 87.6 out of 100, higher than about 87% of US counties, with drought, strong winds and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $51 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Chaves County since 1998, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3628-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 10 July 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 53 tornadoes touching Chaves County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 65,065 Buildings worth $13 billion Area 6,136 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 4 of 33 FIPS 35005
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 98.9 | $5.3 million | about 144 a year | 4,361 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 95.5 | $2.3 million | about once every 1.9 years | 21 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 93.2 | $401,277 | about 5.8 a year | 110 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.5 | $1.5 million | about once every 368 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.3 | $37 million | about 1.5 a year | 42 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 90.0 | $2.2 million | about 4.5 a year | 78 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.4 | $752,856 | about 51 a year | 229,376 strikes |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 85.3 | $448,344 | about once every 2.5 years | 28 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 66.5 | $352,555 | about 1.5 a year | 57 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 54.7 | $14 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 39.0 | $20,248 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 34.7 | $379,504 | about once every 6.3 years | 3 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 31.0 | $62,388 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 26.8 | $167 | about once a year | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 20.6 | $181,827 | about 1.1 a year | 38 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 2.9 | $1 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 7
Most common: Flood 3, Fire 2, Hurricane 1, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1990s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 3 | Fire ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 1 | Flood |
| 2020s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
The last 7
Widest declarations that included Chaves County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2013, DR-4152-NM): 23 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 53
| Tornadoes touching the county | 53 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×3 |
| Peak month | June (16) |
| Deadliest | 12 Mar 2019, EF2, 15.2 mi path, 0 killed, 6 injured |
| Longest path | 12 Mar 2019, EF2, 15.2 mi path, 0 killed, 6 injured |
| Most recent | 6 May 2025, unrated, 1.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 11 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 39 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Chaves County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 87.6 | Drought |
| Eddy County | 100 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | Winter weather |
| Lincoln County | 101 km | Relatively Low | 79.5 | Wildfire |
| De Baca County | 109 km | Very Low | 4.1 | Drought |
| Roosevelt County | 117 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | Wildfire |
| Lea County | 117 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.0 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 73.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 4.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.43 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $51 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Chaves County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for New Mexico
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Chaves County
What natural disasters is Chaves County, New Mexico most at risk from?
Chaves County, New Mexico has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 87.6 out of 100, higher than about 87% of US counties, with drought, strong winds and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $51 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Chaves County had?
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Chaves County since 1998, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3628-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 10 July 2025). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Chaves County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 53 tornadoes touching Chaves County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 12 Mar 2019, EF2, 15.2 mi path, 0 killed, 6 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.