Lincoln County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Lincoln County, New Mexico has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.5 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with wildfires, winter storms and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $28 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 33 federal disaster declarations that included Lincoln County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 22 July 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 23 tornadoes touching Lincoln County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 20,041 Buildings worth $6.6 billion Area 4,880 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 12 of 33 FIPS 35027
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.8 | $15 million | about once every 71 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 86.3 | $203,718 | about 8.4 a year | 159 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85.2 | $638,599 | about 59 a year | 161,679 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 77.6 | $12 million | about 2.3 a year | 65 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 76.3 | $7,057 | about 1.8 a year | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 68.8 | $139,628 | about once every 3.7 years | 18 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 47.6 | $7 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 39.4 | $117,268 | about once every 1.5 years | 25 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 37.1 | $123 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 25.5 | $31,388 | about once every 917 years | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.9 | $1,579 | about 108 a year | 3,409 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 16.6 | $96,417 | about once every 4.6 years | 9 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 15.0 | $2,516 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 11.6 | $68,523 | about once every 8.1 years | 2.4 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.3 | $46,779 | about once every 2.2 years | 14 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 7.7 | $7,941 | about once every 2.7 years | 7 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 33
Most common: Fire 17, Flood 9, Severe Storm 6, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 9 | Fire ×6, Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 8 | Severe Storm ×3, Fire ×3, Flood ×2 |
| 2020s | 10 | Fire ×8, Flood ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Lincoln County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2013, DR-4152-NM): 23 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 23
| Tornadoes touching the county | 23 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×7 |
| Peak month | May (13) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 17 Jun 1972, F1, 6.1 mi path |
| Most recent | 9 Jul 2024, unrated, 0.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Lincoln County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 79.5 | Wildfire |
| Chaves County | 101 km | Relatively Moderate | 87.6 | Drought |
| Torrance County | 106 km | Relatively Low | 46.2 | Wildfire |
| De Baca County | 117 km | Very Low | 4.1 | Drought |
| Otero County | 128 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.7 | Wildfire |
| Guadalupe County | 139 km | Very Low | 8.8 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 82.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 7.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.55 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $28 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Lincoln County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Lightning: Weather alerts for New Mexico
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Lincoln County
What natural disasters is Lincoln County, New Mexico most at risk from?
Lincoln County, New Mexico has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.5 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with wildfires, winter storms and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $28 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Lincoln County had?
OpenFEMA lists 33 federal disaster declarations that included Lincoln County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 22 July 2025). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Lincoln County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 23 tornadoes touching Lincoln County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.