Otero County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Otero County, New Mexico has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.7 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with wildfires, winter storms and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $43 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Otero County since 1984, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 22 July 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 18 tornadoes touching Otero County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 67,699 Buildings worth $14 billion Area 6,694 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 7 of 33 FIPS 35035
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.2 | $12 million | about once every 105 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 93.0 | $414,227 | about 4.9 a year | 92 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.5 | $1.1 million | about 61 a year | 263,356 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.6 | $27 million | about 2 a year | 55 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 79.1 | $299,593 | about once every 3.7 years | 18 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 76.1 | $586,987 | about 113 a year | 3,773 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 75.0 | $557,836 | about once every 1.5 years | 25 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 68.8 | $4,209 | about 1.4 a year | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 68.7 | $689,963 | about 2.4 a year | 44 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 55.7 | $297,043 | about once every 704 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 49.2 | $9 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 38.4 | $314,168 | about once every 2.8 years | 14 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 37.9 | $162 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 25.0 | $256,375 | about once every 5.3 years | 3.5 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 23.6 | $6,625 | about once every 106 years | 0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 11.3 | $63,956 | about once every 2.3 years | 12 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Fire 12, Severe Storm 5, Flood 4, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 9 | Fire ×6, Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 7 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×3, Flood |
| 2020s | 5 | Fire ×3, Flood ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Otero County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2013, DR-4152-NM): 23 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 18
| Tornadoes touching the county | 18 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (6) |
| Deadliest | 4 Jun 2019, EF1, 0.3 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Longest path | 2 May 2007, EF0, 8.4 mi path |
| Most recent | 13 Mar 2020, EF0, 0.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 1 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Otero County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otero County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 84.7 | Wildfire |
| El Paso County, TX | 105 km | Relatively High | 95.5 | Lightning |
| Doña Ana County | 106 km | Relatively High | 96.1 | Drought |
| Lincoln County | 128 km | Relatively Low | 79.5 | Wildfire |
| Hudspeth County, TX | 133 km | Very Low | 2.3 | Drought |
| Eddy County | 136 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 63.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 4.9 |
| Community risk factor | 1.31 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $43 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Otero County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Lightning: Weather alerts for New Mexico
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Otero County
What natural disasters is Otero County, New Mexico most at risk from?
Otero County, New Mexico has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.7 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with wildfires, winter storms and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $43 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Otero County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Otero County since 1984, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 22 July 2025). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Otero County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 18 tornadoes touching Otero County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 4 Jun 2019, EF1, 0.3 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.