Doña Ana County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Doña Ana County, New Mexico has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.1 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with drought, inland (river and flash) flooding and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $164 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 8 federal disaster declarations that included Doña Ana County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 22 July 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Doña Ana County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 218,940 Buildings worth $103 billion Area 3,854 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 1 of 33 FIPS 35013
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 99.4 | $11 million | about 74 a year | 2,772 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 98.4 | $133 million | about 2.5 a year | 71 |
| Winter weather | Very High | 97.4 | $827,595 | about 2.4 a year | 46 |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.3 | $2.0 million | about 52 a year | 380,718 strikes |
| Hail | Relatively High | 96.1 | $2.7 million | about once every 2.4 years | 16 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 94.6 | $4.4 million | about 4.4 a year | 79 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 91.2 | $4.9 million | about once every 662 years | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 86.6 | $643,372 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.0 | $3.2 million | about once every 9.0 years | 2.1 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 64.8 | $127,386 | about once every 24 years | 2 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 58.0 | $530,020 | about once every 2.8 years | 14 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 40.8 | $538 | about once every 1.8 years | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 38.6 | $182 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 36.5 | $18,275 | about once every 169 years | 2 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 20.5 | $189,265 | about once every 7.6 years | 9 |
| Volcanic activity | No Rating | 0.0 | — | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 8
Most common: Flood 3, Severe Storm 2, Fire 2, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 4 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 1 | Flood |
| 2020s | 1 | Flood |
The last 8
Widest declarations that included Doña Ana County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2013, DR-4152-NM): 23 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 13
| Tornadoes touching the county | 13 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×3 |
| Peak month | July (5) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 2 May 2007, EF0, 8.4 mi path |
| Most recent | 13 Jul 2011, EF0, 0.4 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Doña Ana County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doña Ana County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 96.1 | Drought |
| El Paso County, TX | 86 km | Relatively High | 95.5 | Lightning |
| Luna County | 88 km | Relatively Low | 51.6 | Drought |
| Sierra County | 93 km | Relatively Low | 55.8 | Wildfire |
| Otero County | 106 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.7 | Wildfire |
| Grant County | 152 km | Relatively Low | 74.1 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 67.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 4.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.36 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $164 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Doña Ana County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for New Mexico
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Doña Ana County
What natural disasters is Doña Ana County, New Mexico most at risk from?
Doña Ana County, New Mexico has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.1 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with drought, inland (river and flash) flooding and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $164 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Doña Ana County had?
OpenFEMA lists 8 federal disaster declarations that included Doña Ana County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 22 July 2025). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Doña Ana County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Doña Ana County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.