San Juan County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
San Juan County, New Mexico has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.3 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with drought, lightning and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $44 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included San Juan County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3660-NM (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 26 October 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching San Juan County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for New Mexico All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 121,421 Buildings worth $24 billion Area 5,594 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 3 of 33 FIPS 35045
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 99.0 | $4.8 million | about 108 a year | 3,696 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96.5 | $1.4 million | about 5 a year | 413,412 strikes |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 93.0 | $51,177 | about 1.7 a year | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | $31 million | about 1.4 a year | 38 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 89.3 | $233,063 | about 12 a year | 235 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.4 | $3.5 million | about once every 19 years | 1 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 83.9 | $1.5 million | about once every 645 years | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81.6 | $285,003 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.9 | $909,620 | about 1.8 a year | 33 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 38.9 | $30,206 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 26.9 | $47 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 23.8 | $132,767 | about once every 17 years | 3 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 22.6 | $179,416 | about once every 7.2 years | 8 |
| Hail | Very Low | 15.8 | $32,632 | about once every 12 years | 3.1 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 10
Most common: Fire 4, Flood 3, Hurricane 1, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1990s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 3 | Fire ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 3 | Flood ×2, Fire |
| 2020s | 2 | Flood, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included San Juan County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2013, DR-4152-NM): 23 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 11
| Tornadoes touching the county | 11 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | September (4) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 30 Aug 1966, F1, 1.5 mi path |
| Most recent | 22 Sep 2022, unrated, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How San Juan County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Juan County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | Drought |
| Montezuma County, CO | 95 km | Relatively Low | 47.6 | Wildfire |
| La Plata County, CO | 96 km | Relatively Low | 75.2 | Wildfire |
| McKinley County | 103 km | Relatively Low | 78.2 | Lightning |
| Archuleta County, CO | 136 km | Very Low | 34.5 | Wildfire |
| Dolores County, CO | 139 km | Very Low | 11.3 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 91.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 5.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.73 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $44 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for San Juan County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for New Mexico
- Lightning: Weather alerts for New Mexico
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about San Juan County
What natural disasters is San Juan County, New Mexico most at risk from?
San Juan County, New Mexico has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.3 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with drought, lightning and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $44 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has San Juan County had?
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included San Juan County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3660-NM (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 26 October 2026). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit San Juan County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching San Juan County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.