McKinley County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
McKinley County, New Mexico has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.2 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with lightning, winter storms and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $21 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included McKinley County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4152-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides, declared 29 October 2013). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching McKinley County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 72,241 Buildings worth $11 billion Area 5,511 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 13 of 33 FIPS 35031
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | 94.5 | $937,987 | about 55 a year | 447,149 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 90.8 | $230,220 | about 16 a year | 294 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.6 | $3.1 million | about once every 19 years | 1 |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 87.3 | $21,787 | about 1.6 a year | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.8 | $15 million | about 1.4 a year | 40 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 78.7 | $191,238 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 77.6 | $717,486 | about once every 585 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 52.4 | $9 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 3 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 39.5 | $119,222 | about once every 1.6 years | 12 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 27.3 | $45 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 20.6 | $9,063 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 9.0 | $14,200 | about once every 10 years | 3.8 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 6.9 | $24,894 | about once every 16 years | 3 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 4.5 | $8,023 | about once every 11 years | 3 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about 101 a year | 3,717 |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 9
Most common: Flood 5, Fire 2, Severe Storm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
The last 9
Widest declarations that included McKinley County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2013, DR-4152-NM): 23 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 5
| Tornadoes touching the county | 5 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×3 |
| Peak month | May (2) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 14 Jun 2024, unrated, 2.6 mi path |
| Most recent | 14 Jun 2024, unrated, 2.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How McKinley County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKinley County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 78.2 | Lightning |
| Cibola County | 78 km | Relatively Low | 58.4 | Lightning |
| San Juan County | 103 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | Drought |
| Apache County, AZ | 113 km | Relatively Low | 78.8 | Lightning |
| Sandoval County | 127 km | Relatively Low | 77.0 | Landslide |
| Bernalillo County | 156 km | Relatively High | 94.4 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 99.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 0.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.95 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $21 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for McKinley County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for New Mexico
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about McKinley County
What natural disasters is McKinley County, New Mexico most at risk from?
McKinley County, New Mexico has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.2 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with lightning, winter storms and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $21 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has McKinley County had?
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included McKinley County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4152-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides, declared 29 October 2013). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit McKinley County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching McKinley County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.