Apache County, Arizona: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Apache County, Arizona has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.8 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with lightning, wildfires and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $21 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Apache County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5584-AZ (Greer Fire, declared 14 May 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Apache County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arizona All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 65,844 Buildings worth $10 billion Area 11,333 sq mi Risk rank in Arizona 13 of 15 FIPS 04001
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Very High | 99.1 | $2.3 million | about 53 a year | 466,896 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 97.9 | $6.0 million | about once every 168 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 93.5 | $51,639 | about 2.5 a year | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 90.6 | $223,995 | about 6.2 a year | 118 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 80.7 | $11 million | about 2.8 a year | 77 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 67.7 | $371,363 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 62.7 | $831,293 | about once every 48 years | 0.4 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 57.3 | $11 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 3 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 53.9 | $53,093 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 50.7 | $310 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 50.3 | $78,692 | about 106 a year | 4,774 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 46.7 | $168,200 | about once every 1.5 years | 12 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 11.7 | $1,346 | about once every 97 years | 0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 8.6 | $13,182 | about once every 16 years | 2.4 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 8.3 | $32,329 | about once every 25 years | 2 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 3.6 | $5,469 | about once every 3.7 years | 12 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 14
Most common: Flood 5, Fire 4, Severe Storm 3, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Drought |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Fire ×2, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Fire |
| 2020s | 2 | Fire, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Apache County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3241-AZ): 15 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding (1993, DR-977-AZ): 13 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1983, DR-691-AZ): 11 Arizona counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arizona also had 27 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 17
| Tornadoes touching the county | 17 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×16 |
| Peak month | October (4) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 13 Sep 2022, EF0, 7.7 mi path |
| Most recent | 4 Jun 2025, unrated, 0.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Apache County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apache County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 78.8 | Lightning |
| Navajo County | 75 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.1 | Lightning |
| McKinley County, NM | 113 km | Relatively Low | 78.2 | Lightning |
| Cibola County, NM | 146 km | Relatively Low | 58.4 | Lightning |
| San Juan County, NM | 161 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | Drought |
| Catron County, NM | 194 km | Very Low | 36.6 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arizona, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 99.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 0.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.97 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $21 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Apache County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arizona · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Arizona
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Apache County
What natural disasters is Apache County, Arizona most at risk from?
Apache County, Arizona has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.8 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with lightning, wildfires and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $21 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Apache County had?
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Apache County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5584-AZ (Greer Fire, declared 14 May 2025). Another 27 Arizona declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Apache County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Apache County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.