Navajo County, Arizona: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Navajo County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.1 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with lightning, wildfires and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $40 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Navajo County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4620-AZ (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 13 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 23 tornadoes touching Navajo County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arizona All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 106,501 Buildings worth $21 billion Area 10,059 sq mi Risk rank in Arizona 11 of 15 FIPS 04017
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Very High | 99.5 | $3.4 million | about 48 a year | 439,075 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.8 | $12 million | about once every 225 years | — |
| Winter weather | Very High | 96.8 | $522,038 | about 5.8 a year | 110 |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 94.0 | $56,697 | about 2.5 a year | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 89.5 | $20 million | about 4.1 a year | 116 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 81.2 | $1.0 million | about once every 571 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 73.0 | $1.4 million | about once every 58 years | 0.3 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 63.3 | $85,909 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 56.7 | $281,339 | about once every 1.3 years | 13 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 53.7 | $9 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 52.0 | $92,239 | about 103 a year | 4,732 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 50.9 | $325 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 40.1 | $230,556 | about once every 18 years | 3 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 34.8 | $80,006 | about once every 9.2 years | 4.1 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.0 | $24,832 | about once every 2.5 years | 17 |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 19
Most common: Flood 7, Fire 6, Severe Storm 4, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 4 | Flood ×3, Drought |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 2 | Fire, Flood |
| 2000s | 8 | Fire ×5, Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 2 | Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 1 | Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Navajo County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3241-AZ): 15 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding (1993, DR-977-AZ): 13 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1983, DR-691-AZ): 11 Arizona counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arizona also had 27 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 23
| Tornadoes touching the county | 23 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (5) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 18 Oct 2005, F0, 30 mi path |
| Most recent | 15 Jul 2025, EF0, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Navajo County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 88.1 | Lightning |
| Apache County | 75 km | Relatively Low | 78.8 | Lightning |
| Coconino County | 140 km | Relatively Moderate | 94.2 | Lightning |
| Gila County | 185 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.2 | Wildfire |
| McKinley County, NM | 187 km | Relatively Low | 78.2 | Lightning |
| San Juan County, NM | 217 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arizona, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 97.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 3.6 |
| Community risk factor | 1.88 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $40 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Navajo County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arizona · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Arizona
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Navajo County
What natural disasters is Navajo County, Arizona most at risk from?
Navajo County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.1 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with lightning, wildfires and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $40 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Navajo County had?
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Navajo County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4620-AZ (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 13 September 2021). Another 27 Arizona declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Navajo County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 23 tornadoes touching Navajo County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.