Coconino County, Arizona: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Coconino County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 94.2 out of 100, higher than about 94% of US counties, with lightning, wildfires and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $131 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Coconino County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5441-AZ (Pipeline Fire, declared 12 June 2022). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 49 tornadoes touching Coconino County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 144,629 Buildings worth $33 billion Area 18,850 sq mi Risk rank in Arizona 4 of 15 FIPS 04005
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Very High | 99.6 | $5.5 million | about 44 a year | 471,106 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.4 | $29 million | about once every 89 years | — |
| Winter weather | Very High | 98.3 | $1.2 million | about 8.2 a year | 156 |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 97.4 | $309,224 | about 5.5 a year | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 96.5 | $86 million | about 8 a year | 225 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.4 | $4.7 million | about once every 368 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Relatively Low | 85.7 | $2,857 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 3 |
| Avalanche | Relatively Moderate | 81.7 | $456,704 | about once every 30 years | 1 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 80.2 | $3.2 million | about once every 32 years | 0.6 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 63.9 | $599,683 | about 1.5 a year | 16 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 57.6 | $102,916 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 57.1 | $296,304 | about once every 4.7 years | 8.1 |
| Drought | Very Low | 25.1 | $10,659 | about 97 a year | 4,137 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 24.3 | $295,855 | about once every 1.2 years | 35 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 14.4 | $101,268 | about once every 15 years | 3 |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Fire 11, Flood 5, Severe Storm 4, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Drought |
| 1990s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 2000s | 6 | Fire ×4, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 8 | Fire ×5, Severe Storm ×3 |
| 2020s | 3 | Fire ×2, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Coconino County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3241-AZ): 15 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding (1993, DR-977-AZ): 13 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1978, DR-551-AZ): 10 Arizona counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arizona also had 27 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 49
| Tornadoes touching the county | 49 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | October (19) |
| Deadliest | 6 Oct 2010, EF2, 26 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured |
| Longest path | 6 Oct 2010, EF3, 30.1 mi path |
| Most recent | 18 Oct 2024, EF0, 1.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 7 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 34 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Coconino County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconino County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 94.2 | Lightning |
| Navajo County | 140 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.1 | Lightning |
| Yavapai County | 156 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.7 | Wildfire |
| Kane County, UT | 160 km | Very Low | 39.7 | Landslide |
| Mohave County | 180 km | Relatively High | 94.8 | Wildfire |
| Apache County | 212 km | Relatively Low | 78.8 | Lightning |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arizona, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 58.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 46.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.21 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $131 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Coconino County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arizona · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Arizona
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Coconino County
What natural disasters is Coconino County, Arizona most at risk from?
Coconino County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 94.2 out of 100, higher than about 94% of US counties, with lightning, wildfires and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $131 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Coconino County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Coconino County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5441-AZ (Pipeline Fire, declared 12 June 2022). Another 27 Arizona declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Coconino County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 49 tornadoes touching Coconino County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 6 Oct 2010, EF2, 26 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.