Erie County, New York: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Erie County, New York has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 97.7 out of 100, higher than about 97% of US counties, with cold waves, winter storms and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $286 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Erie County since 1976, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4694-NY (Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, declared 15 March 2023). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 27 tornadoes touching Erie County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for New York All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 954,005 Buildings worth $196 billion Area 1,239 sq mi Risk rank in New York 5 of 62 FIPS 36029
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | Very High | 99.6 | $53 million | about 4.9 a year | 90 |
| Winter weather | Very High | 99.5 | $2.2 million | about 45 a year | 827 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 99.0 | $205 million | about 3.6 a year | 101 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 95.4 | $12 million | about once every 6.7 years | 20 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.4 | $6.2 million | about 2.1 a year | 40 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 93.7 | $1.3 million | about 2.7 a year | 155 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 86.3 | $942,445 | about 32 a year | 491,571 strikes |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 85.8 | $2.9 million | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 80.4 | $1.3 million | about 1.6 a year | 51 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 71.3 | $649,310 | about once every 34 years | 10 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 62.6 | $96,748 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.0 | $1,475 | about once every 3.6 years | — |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 44.4 | $42,445 | about once every 71 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 41.5 | $180,842 | about once every 1.2 years | 31 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 35.8 | $42,489 | about once every 2.8 years | 49 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 24.0 | $54 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 25
Most common: Snowstorm 11, Severe Storm 6, Winter Storm 2, Hurricane 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Snowstorm ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 1980s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 1990s | 3 | Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 12 | Severe Storm ×4, Snowstorm ×4, Other ×2, Hurricane, Fire |
| 2010s | 3 | Severe Storm, Snowstorm, Hurricane |
| 2020s | 3 | Winter Storm ×2, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Erie County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3351-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3262-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1534-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New York also had 7 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 27
| Tornadoes touching the county | 27 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (8) |
| Deadliest | 19 Aug 1970, F3, 2.3 mi path, 0 killed, 3 injured |
| Longest path | 2 May 1972, F2, 12 mi path |
| Most recent | 9 Sep 2024, EF0, 1.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 6 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 12 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Erie County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 97.7 | Cold wave |
| Wyoming County | 42 km | Very Low | 41.3 | Inland flooding |
| Niagara County | 49 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | Inland flooding |
| Genesee County | 51 km | Relatively Low | 56.1 | Lightning |
| Cattaraugus County | 57 km | Relatively Moderate | 81.6 | Inland flooding |
| Orleans County | 68 km | Very Low | 17.9 | Ice storm |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New York, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 47.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 95.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.09 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $286 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Erie County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New York · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Erie County
What natural disasters is Erie County, New York most at risk from?
Erie County, New York has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 97.7 out of 100, higher than about 97% of US counties, with cold waves, winter storms and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $286 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Erie County had?
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Erie County since 1976, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4694-NY (Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, declared 15 March 2023). Another 7 New York declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Erie County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 27 tornadoes touching Erie County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 19 Aug 1970, F3, 2.3 mi path, 0 killed, 3 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.