Monroe County, New York: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Monroe County, New York has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.8 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with cold waves, inland (river and flash) flooding and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $141 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Monroe County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4348-NY (Flooding, declared 14 November 2017). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching Monroe County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 758,349 Buildings worth $154 billion Area 1,381 sq mi Risk rank in New York 9 of 62 FIPS 36055
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 98.0 | $20 million | about 3 a year | 56 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 96.7 | $103 million | about 2.2 a year | 61 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 95.4 | $711,461 | about 21 a year | 392 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 94.8 | $5.8 million | about 3.4 a year | 61 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 89.0 | $813,591 | about 1.5 a year | 51 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 87.2 | $5.8 million | about once every 9.3 years | 3 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 84.1 | $2.5 million | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 79.1 | $1.2 million | about 1.3 a year | 25 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 77.5 | $637,705 | about 27 a year | 326,645 strikes |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 68.8 | $521,102 | about once every 35 years | 10 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 56.3 | $218,141 | about once every 1.2 years | 70 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 47.1 | $38,845 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Coastal flooding | Very Low | 39.0 | $14,176 | about once every 72 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 35.6 | $467 | about once every 8.6 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 32.5 | $130,120 | about 1.1 a year | 42 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 19
Most common: Flood 4, Severe Storm 4, Snowstorm 4, Hurricane 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 4 | Flood ×3, Severe Ice Storm |
| 1990s | 6 | Snowstorm ×4, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×2, Other ×2, Hurricane, Severe Ice Storm, Fire |
| 2010s | 2 | Flood, Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Monroe County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3351-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3262-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1534-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New York also had 7 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 5
| Tornadoes touching the county | 5 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (3) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 6 Apr 1979, F0, 14 mi path |
| Most recent | 29 Jul 2020, EF0, 4.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Monroe County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 93.8 | Cold wave |
| Genesee County | 44 km | Relatively Low | 56.1 | Lightning |
| Orleans County | 45 km | Very Low | 17.9 | Ice storm |
| Ontario County | 46 km | Relatively Low | 63.5 | Inland flooding |
| Livingston County | 47 km | Relatively Low | 56.4 | Inland flooding |
| Wayne County | 54 km | Relatively Low | 56.3 | Hail |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New York, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 43.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 94.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.06 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $141 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Monroe County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New York · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Monroe County
What natural disasters is Monroe County, New York most at risk from?
Monroe County, New York has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.8 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with cold waves, inland (river and flash) flooding and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $141 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Monroe County had?
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Monroe County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4348-NY (Flooding, declared 14 November 2017). Another 7 New York declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Monroe County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching Monroe County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.