Durham County, North Carolina: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Durham County, North Carolina has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 89.6 out of 100, higher than about 89% of US counties, with heat waves, tornadoes and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $91 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Durham County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Durham County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for North Carolina All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 324,580 Buildings worth $66 billion Area 301 sq mi Risk rank in North Carolina 15 of 100 FIPS 37063
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 94.0 | $5.5 million | about 5.6 a year | 90 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 93.5 | $11 million | about once every 8.0 years | 10 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | $57 million | about 2.1 a year | 58 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 90.4 | $1.4 million | about 47 a year | 211,995 strikes |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | $7.6 million | about once every 7.5 years | 36 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 89.1 | $1.8 million | about 4.2 a year | 159 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 88.1 | $2.1 million | about 1.3 a year | 50 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 83.2 | $270,227 | about 7.2 a year | 136 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 82.4 | $551,915 | about 1.7 a year | 116 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 81.9 | $2.2 million | about once every 926 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 55.2 | $1.3 million | about once every 1.5 years | 13 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 45.6 | $1,128 | about once every 5.7 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 42.8 | $96,649 | about 16 a year | 462 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 34.5 | $20,723 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 23
Most common: Hurricane 11, Snowstorm 3, Tropical Storm 2, Severe Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Snowstorm |
| 1980s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1990s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Ice Storm, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 4 | Hurricane ×4 |
| 2020s | 6 | Tropical Storm ×2, Hurricane ×2, Winter Storm, Tropical Depression |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Durham County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3637-NC): 100 North Carolina counties designated.
- Hurricane Helene (2024, EM-3617-NC): 100 North Carolina counties designated.
- Hurricane Ian (2022, EM-3586-NC): 100 North Carolina counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Depression Chantal (2025), Hurricane Helene (2024), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Ian (2022), Hurricane Isaias (2020), Hurricane Dorian (2019), Hurricane Florence (2018), Hurricane Matthew (2016), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Fran (1996).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. North Carolina also had 9 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 11
| Tornadoes touching the county | 11 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×3 |
| Peak month | May (4) |
| Deadliest | 4 Apr 1984, F2, 1.7 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured |
| Longest path | 5 May 1989, F2, 8.7 mi path |
| Most recent | 27 Sep 2024, EF1, 0.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 5 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Durham County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 89.6 | Heat wave |
| Orange County | 22 km | Relatively Low | 79.1 | Winter weather |
| Wake County | 34 km | Relatively High | 95.5 | Hail |
| Granville County | 36 km | Relatively Low | 59.4 | Hurricane |
| Person County | 40 km | Very Low | 41.5 | Drought |
| Alamance County | 47 km | Relatively Low | 77.1 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in North Carolina, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 26.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 77.0 |
| Community risk factor | 0.94 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $91 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Durham County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for North Carolina · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Durham County
What natural disasters is Durham County, North Carolina most at risk from?
Durham County, North Carolina has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 89.6 out of 100, higher than about 89% of US counties, with heat waves, tornadoes and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $91 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Durham County had?
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Durham County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 9 North Carolina declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Durham County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Durham County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 4 Apr 1984, F2, 1.7 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.