Orange County, North Carolina: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Orange County, North Carolina has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.1 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with winter storms, inland (river and flash) flooding and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $50 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations that included Orange County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 12 tornadoes touching Orange County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for North Carolina All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 148,579 Buildings worth $30 billion Area 405 sq mi Risk rank in North Carolina 37 of 100 FIPS 37135
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 86.2 | $372,502 | about 7.4 a year | 141 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 85.5 | $33 million | about 1.3 a year | 36 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85.3 | $1.2 million | about 47 a year | 115,246 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | $2.4 million | about 4.8 a year | 78 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | $3.0 million | about once every 9.4 years | 26 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | $5.2 million | about once every 6.5 years | 10 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 76.5 | $905,903 | about 4.4 a year | 169 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 74.5 | $1.4 million | about 1.6 a year | 60 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 73.5 | $331,168 | about 1.8 a year | 121 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 64.9 | $743,556 | about once every 847 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 54.5 | $248,719 | about 16 a year | 462 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 41.7 | $911 | about once every 5.7 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 36.1 | $691,422 | about once every 1.5 years | 13 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 28.4 | $15,875 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 24
Most common: Hurricane 12, Severe Ice Storm 3, Snowstorm 3, Tropical Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Snowstorm |
| 1990s | 5 | Hurricane ×3, Snowstorm ×2 |
| 2000s | 5 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 6 | Hurricane ×5, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2020s | 6 | Tropical Storm ×2, Hurricane ×2, Winter Storm, Tropical Depression |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Orange County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3637-NC): 100 North Carolina counties designated.
- Hurricane Helene (2024, EM-3617-NC): 100 North Carolina counties designated.
- Hurricane Ian (2022, EM-3586-NC): 100 North Carolina counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Depression Chantal (2025), Hurricane Helene (2024), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Ian (2022), Hurricane Isaias (2020), Hurricane Dorian (2019), Tropical Storm Michael (2019), Hurricane Florence (2018), Hurricane Matthew (2016), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Fran (1996).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. North Carolina also had 9 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 12
| Tornadoes touching the county | 12 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | January (2) |
| Deadliest | 23 Nov 1992, F3, 5.5 mi path, 2 killed, 10 injured |
| Longest path | 29 Mar 1991, F2, 26 mi path |
| Most recent | 6 Jul 2025, EF1, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 2 / 11 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Orange County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 79.1 | Winter weather |
| Durham County | 22 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.6 | Heat wave |
| Alamance County | 25 km | Relatively Low | 77.1 | Winter weather |
| Person County | 39 km | Very Low | 41.5 | Drought |
| Caswell County | 42 km | Very Low | 22.4 | Hurricane |
| Chatham County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 67.2 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in North Carolina, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 16.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 93.6 |
| Community risk factor | 0.85 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $50 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Orange County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for North Carolina · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Lightning: Weather alerts for North Carolina
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Orange County
What natural disasters is Orange County, North Carolina most at risk from?
Orange County, North Carolina has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.1 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with winter storms, inland (river and flash) flooding and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $50 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Orange County had?
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations that included Orange County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 9 North Carolina declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Orange County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 12 tornadoes touching Orange County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 23 Nov 1992, F3, 5.5 mi path, 2 killed, 10 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.