Mercer County, North Dakota: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Mercer County, North Dakota has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 13.9 out of 100, higher than about 13% of US counties, with winter storms, hail and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.8 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Mercer County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4934-ND (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 1 September 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 22 tornadoes touching Mercer County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 8,350 Buildings worth $3.6 billion Area 1,124 sq mi Risk rank in North Dakota 25 of 53 FIPS 38057
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 84.3 | $353,422 | about 18 a year | 350 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 75.1 | $951,643 | about 2.5 a year | 101 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 66.2 | $2.5 million | about 15 a year | 289 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 65.0 | $228,006 | about once every 1.6 years | 43 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 61.6 | $127,923 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.5 | $624,386 | about once every 3.2 years | 13 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 21.7 | $268,656 | about 1.5 a year | 58 |
| Drought | Very Low | 21.0 | $6,919 | about 23 a year | 595 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 20.0 | $159 | about once every 3.4 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 16.4 | $2.7 million | about once every 2.3 years | 12 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 14.1 | $43,102 | about 1.6 a year | 24 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 11.0 | $50,312 | about 3 a year | 51,908 strikes |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 4.3 | $5,804 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 23
Most common: Flood 13, Severe Storm 5, Snowstorm 3, Coastal Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1970s | 4 | Flood ×3, Drought |
| 1990s | 4 | Flood ×3, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 4 | Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm, Coastal Storm |
| 2010s | 6 | Flood ×4, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 3 | Severe Storm, Flood, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Mercer County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3247-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
- Severe Flooding,severe Winter Storms, Snowmelt, Spring Rains (1997, DR-1174-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms and Blizzard Conditions (1997, DR-1157-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. North Dakota also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 22
| Tornadoes touching the county | 22 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (9) |
| Deadliest | 24 May 1975, F2, 33.7 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured |
| Longest path | 24 May 1975, F2, 33.7 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured |
| Most recent | 30 Aug 2025, unrated, 0.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 8 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Mercer County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer County (this page) | — | Very Low | 13.9 | Winter weather |
| Oliver County | 43 km | Very Low | 1.7 | Wildfire |
| McLean County | 54 km | Relatively Low | 43.1 | Winter weather |
| Dunn County | 60 km | Very Low | 10.8 | Hail |
| Morton County | 77 km | Relatively Low | 49.6 | Hail |
| Stark County | 82 km | Very Low | 37.3 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in North Dakota, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 11.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 78.5 |
| Community risk factor | 0.77 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $7.8 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Mercer County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for North Dakota · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Hail: Weather alerts for North Dakota
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Mercer County
What natural disasters is Mercer County, North Dakota most at risk from?
Mercer County, North Dakota has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 13.9 out of 100, higher than about 13% of US counties, with winter storms, hail and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.8 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Mercer County had?
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Mercer County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4934-ND (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 1 September 2026). Another 2 North Dakota declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Mercer County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 22 tornadoes touching Mercer County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 24 May 1975, F2, 33.7 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.