Nelson County, North Dakota: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Nelson County, North Dakota has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 7.9 out of 100, higher than about 7% of US counties, with hail, ice storms and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $3.0 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Nelson County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4895-ND (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 22 October 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 41 tornadoes touching Nelson County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 3,007 Buildings worth $1.2 billion Area 1,019 sq mi Risk rank in North Dakota 36 of 53 FIPS 38063
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 81.0 | $675,588 | about 3.7 a year | 141 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 79.6 | $282,518 | about once every 1.5 years | 45 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 74.4 | $115,873 | about 22 a year | 426 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 67.8 | $106,475 | about once every 877 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 57.3 | $908,182 | about 23 a year | 434 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 31.7 | $256 | about once every 10 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 28.8 | $202,613 | about 2.1 a year | 79 |
| Drought | Very Low | 27.3 | $12,332 | about 10 a year | 252 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 21.5 | $192,521 | about once every 1.4 years | 40 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 8.0 | $8,712 | about once a year | 14 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 5.1 | $11,824 | about 27 a year | 43,853 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 4.3 | $459,711 | about 2 a year | 56 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.6 | $1,156 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 31
Most common: Flood 17, Severe Storm 12, Snowstorm 1, Coastal Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 1970s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 8 | Flood ×4, Severe Storm ×4 |
| 2000s | 6 | Severe Storm ×4, Coastal Storm, Flood |
| 2010s | 5 | Flood ×4, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 7 | Severe Storm ×3, Flood ×3, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Nelson County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3247-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
- Severe Flooding,severe Winter Storms, Snowmelt, Spring Rains (1997, DR-1174-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms and Blizzard Conditions (1997, DR-1157-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. North Dakota also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 41
| Tornadoes touching the county | 41 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | July (19) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 7 Jul 2016, EF0, 9 mi path |
| Most recent | 24 Jun 2022, EF0, 0.7 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 31 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Nelson County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson County (this page) | — | Very Low | 7.9 | Hail |
| Griggs County | 52 km | Very Low | 5.1 | Ice storm |
| Grand Forks County | 55 km | Relatively Low | 57.7 | Winter weather |
| Ramsey County | 55 km | Very Low | 18.3 | Winter weather |
| Eddy County | 58 km | Very Low | 1.8 | Ice storm |
| Walsh County | 61 km | Very Low | 29.0 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in North Dakota, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 82.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 53.6 |
| Community risk factor | 1.45 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $3.0 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Nelson County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for North Dakota · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hail: Weather alerts for North Dakota
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Nelson County
What natural disasters is Nelson County, North Dakota most at risk from?
Nelson County, North Dakota has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 7.9 out of 100, higher than about 7% of US counties, with hail, ice storms and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $3.0 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Nelson County had?
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Nelson County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4895-ND (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 22 October 2025). Another 2 North Dakota declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Nelson County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 41 tornadoes touching Nelson County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.