Pembina County, North Dakota: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Pembina County, North Dakota has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 20.9 out of 100, higher than about 20% of US counties, with winter storms, ice storms and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.4 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 36 federal disaster declarations that included Pembina County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4717-ND (Flooding, declared 5 July 2023). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 41 tornadoes touching Pembina County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 6,825 Buildings worth $2.9 billion Area 1,133 sq mi Risk rank in North Dakota 20 of 53 FIPS 38067
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 81.7 | $194,824 | about 22 a year | 421 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | $303,752 | about once every 2.7 years | 26 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 72.0 | $2.0 million | about 23 a year | 432 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 63.9 | $96,019 | about once every 595 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 57.3 | $295,969 | about 2.3 a year | 87 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 42.3 | $150,020 | about 26 a year | 52,943 strikes |
| Landslide | Very Low | 34.6 | $377 | about once every 9.4 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 31.9 | $26,744 | about 6.5 a year | 182 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 28.8 | $239,880 | about 1.3 a year | 49 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 28.7 | $2.9 million | about 1.8 a year | 49 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 21.3 | $226,346 | about once every 2.2 years | 37 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 11.9 | $20,823 | about 1.1 a year | 17 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 2.3 | $1,831 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 36
Most common: Flood 24, Severe Storm 11, Coastal Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 1970s | 5 | Flood ×5 |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 7 | Flood ×4, Severe Storm ×3 |
| 2000s | 8 | Severe Storm ×6, Coastal Storm, Flood |
| 2010s | 9 | Flood ×8, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Pembina County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3247-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
- Severe Flooding,severe Winter Storms, Snowmelt, Spring Rains (1997, DR-1174-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms and Blizzard Conditions (1997, DR-1157-ND): 53 North Dakota counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. North Dakota also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 41
| Tornadoes touching the county | 41 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (17) |
| Deadliest | 22 Jun 1992, F1, 7 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured |
| Longest path | 3 Jun 2011, EF1, 25.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 15 May 2025, unrated, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 4 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 23 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 6 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Pembina County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pembina County (this page) | — | Very Low | 20.9 | Winter weather |
| Walsh County | 46 km | Very Low | 29.0 | Winter weather |
| Kittson County, MN | 56 km | Very Low | 4.8 | Wildfire |
| Cavalier County | 67 km | Very Low | 11.8 | Winter weather |
| Grand Forks County | 94 km | Relatively Low | 57.7 | Winter weather |
| Marshall County, MN | 98 km | Very Low | 23.6 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in North Dakota, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 58.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 31.9 |
| Community risk factor | 1.22 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $6.4 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Pembina County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for North Dakota · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Pembina County
What natural disasters is Pembina County, North Dakota most at risk from?
Pembina County, North Dakota has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 20.9 out of 100, higher than about 20% of US counties, with winter storms, ice storms and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.4 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Pembina County had?
OpenFEMA lists 36 federal disaster declarations that included Pembina County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4717-ND (Flooding, declared 5 July 2023). Another 2 North Dakota declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Pembina County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 41 tornadoes touching Pembina County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 22 Jun 1992, F1, 7 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.