Ashtabula County, Ohio: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Ashtabula County, Ohio has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 62.6 out of 100, higher than about 62% of US counties, with winter storms, strong winds and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $19 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Ashtabula County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4098-OH (Severe Storms and Flooding Due To the Remnants of Hurricane Sandy, declared 3 January 2013). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Ashtabula County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 97,518 Buildings worth $23 billion Area 1,382 sq mi Risk rank in Ohio 35 of 88 FIPS 39007
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 88.7 | $318,645 | about 25 a year | 247 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 87.2 | $1.5 million | about 1.6 a year | 33 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 78.8 | $3.2 million | about once every 2.8 years | 13 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 72.6 | $12 million | about 1.5 a year | 42 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 69.2 | $457,927 | about 3 a year | 114 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 68.8 | $175,940 | about 1.2 a year | 44 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 62.6 | $314,754 | about 39 a year | 126,158 strikes |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 54.7 | $303,078 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 52.3 | $76,657 | about once every 35 years | 14 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 51.0 | $331,876 | about 1.3 a year | 12 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 36.1 | $17,425 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 34.4 | $439,034 | about 3.2 a year | 31 |
| Coastal flooding | Very Low | 28.8 | $3,294 | about once every 74 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 22.0 | $123 | about once every 7.7 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 13
Most common: Severe Storm 3, Snowstorm 3, Hurricane 2, Tornado 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1970s | 4 | Snowstorm ×2, Flood ×2 |
| 1980s | 1 | Tornado |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×2, Snowstorm, Hurricane, Other |
| 2010s | 2 | Hurricane, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Ashtabula County
- Severe Storms (2012, EM-3346-OH): 88 Ohio counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3250-OH): 88 Ohio counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1556-OH): 88 Ohio counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Sandy (2013), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Ohio also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 13
| Tornadoes touching the county | 13 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (3) |
| Deadliest | 31 May 1985, F3, 15 mi path, 0 killed, 30 injured |
| Longest path | 8 Jul 1956, F2, 23.9 mi path |
| Most recent | 5 Nov 2017, EF2, 6.7 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 32 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Ashtabula County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashtabula County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 62.6 | Winter weather |
| Lake County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 77.4 | Winter weather |
| Geauga County | 43 km | Relatively Low | 60.3 | Winter weather |
| Trumbull County | 43 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.5 | Strong wind |
| Crawford County, PA | 53 km | Relatively Low | 76.0 | Winter weather |
| Mercer County, PA | 61 km | Relatively Low | 77.7 | Inland flooding |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Ohio, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 63.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 88.7 |
| Community risk factor | 1.22 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $19 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Ashtabula County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Ohio · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Ashtabula County
What natural disasters is Ashtabula County, Ohio most at risk from?
Ashtabula County, Ohio has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 62.6 out of 100, higher than about 62% of US counties, with winter storms, strong winds and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $19 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Ashtabula County had?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Ashtabula County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4098-OH (Severe Storms and Flooding Due To the Remnants of Hurricane Sandy, declared 3 January 2013). Another 3 Ohio declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Ashtabula County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Ashtabula County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 31 May 1985, F3, 15 mi path, 0 killed, 30 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.