Mahoning County, Ohio: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Mahoning County, Ohio has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.6 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with hail, strong winds and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $43 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Mahoning County since 1978, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4447-OH (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslide, declared 18 June 2019). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Mahoning County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 228,579 Buildings worth $54 billion Area 430 sq mi Risk rank in Ohio 11 of 88 FIPS 39099
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | Relatively High | 94.8 | $2.3 million | about 4.4 a year | 167 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 93.1 | $2.1 million | about 2.5 a year | 97 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.1 | $1.1 million | about 4 a year | 239,793 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 91.2 | $6.5 million | about once every 5.2 years | 15 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.1 | $27 million | about 1.1 a year | 32 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 85.8 | $242,540 | about 11 a year | 202 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 83.6 | $455,132 | about once every 1.8 years | 39 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 78.4 | $1.1 million | about 1.7 a year | 32 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 73.3 | $821,833 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 68.5 | $433,016 | about once every 55 years | 6 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 48.6 | $36,417 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 31.5 | $375,437 | about 3.8 a year | 72 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 28.0 | $215 | about once every 11 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 10
Most common: Severe Storm 6, Tornado 2, Hurricane 1, Snowstorm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane, Tornado |
| 2010s | 2 | Tornado, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Mahoning County
- Severe Storms (2012, EM-3346-OH): 88 Ohio counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3250-OH): 88 Ohio counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1556-OH): 88 Ohio counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Ohio also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 17
| Tornadoes touching the county | 17 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | July (7) |
| Deadliest | 5 Aug 1956, F3, 0.1 mi path, 2 killed, 0 injured |
| Longest path | 19 Apr 1963, F2, 15.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 4 Sep 2022, EF0, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 15 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Mahoning County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahoning County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 83.6 | Hail |
| Columbiana County | 27 km | Relatively Low | 69.1 | Hail |
| Trumbull County | 34 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.5 | Strong wind |
| Lawrence County, PA | 37 km | Relatively Low | 66.1 | Inland flooding |
| Portage County | 39 km | Relatively Low | 65.1 | Hail |
| Beaver County, PA | 52 km | Relatively Low | 75.3 | Inland flooding |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Ohio, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 66.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 80.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.26 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $43 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Mahoning County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Ohio · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hail: Weather alerts for Ohio
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Ohio
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Mahoning County
What natural disasters is Mahoning County, Ohio most at risk from?
Mahoning County, Ohio has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.6 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with hail, strong winds and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $43 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Mahoning County had?
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Mahoning County since 1978, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4447-OH (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslide, declared 18 June 2019). Another 3 Ohio declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Mahoning County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Mahoning County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 5 Aug 1956, F3, 0.1 mi path, 2 killed, 0 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.