Deschutes County, Oregon: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Deschutes County, Oregon has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.9 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with wildfires, volcanic activity and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $66 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Deschutes County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5647-OR (Akawa Butte Fire, declared 23 July 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 6 tornadoes touching Deschutes County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Oregon All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 197,964 Buildings worth $53 billion Area 3,085 sq mi Risk rank in Oregon 14 of 36 FIPS 41017
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 97.8 | $13 million | about once every 289 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Relatively Moderate | 96.1 | $553,968 | about once every 667 years | 11 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.9 | $42 million | about once every 2.0 years | 14 |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 88.9 | $1.9 million | about once every 5.0 years | 6 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.2 | $1.2 million | about 14 a year | 85,318 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 86.6 | $370,740 | about 2 a year | 378 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 83.0 | $2.7 million | about once every 222 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 81.6 | $23,473 | about once every 2.1 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 79.8 | $1.0 million | about once every 2.6 years | 15 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 66.3 | $2.2 million | about once every 6.8 years | 2.8 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 54.8 | $126,081 | about once every 57 years | 1 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 54.1 | $538,987 | about 2.4 a year | 27 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 43.2 | $538,630 | about once every 17 years | 3 |
| Drought | Very Low | 15.3 | $820 | about 69 a year | 2,737 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.7 | $61,802 | about once every 20 years | 5 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 18
Most common: Fire 12, Severe Storm 2, Flood 2, Coastal Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 6 | Fire ×4, Coastal Storm, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 6 | Fire ×6 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Deschutes County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3228-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- Heavy Rains & Flooding (1964, DR-184-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2004, DR-1510-OR): 30 Oregon counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Oregon also had 33 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 6
| Tornadoes touching the county | 6 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×1 |
| Peak month | September (2) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 25 Sep 2001, F0, 2 mi path |
| Most recent | 13 Apr 2017, EF0, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Deschutes County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deschutes County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 84.9 | Wildfire |
| Crook County | 74 km | Very Low | 33.6 | Wildfire |
| Jefferson County | 79 km | Very Low | 29.9 | Wildfire |
| Linn County | 122 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.1 | Earthquake |
| Lane County | 130 km | Relatively High | 96.4 | Earthquake |
| Wheeler County | 131 km | Very Low | 7.2 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Oregon, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 18.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 69.1 |
| Community risk factor | 0.87 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $66 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Deschutes County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Oregon · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Volcanic activity: US volcano alerts
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Deschutes County
What natural disasters is Deschutes County, Oregon most at risk from?
Deschutes County, Oregon has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.9 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with wildfires, volcanic activity and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $66 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Deschutes County had?
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Deschutes County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5647-OR (Akawa Butte Fire, declared 23 July 2026). Another 33 Oregon declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Deschutes County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 6 tornadoes touching Deschutes County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.