Jefferson County, Oregon: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Jefferson County, Oregon has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 29.9 out of 100, higher than about 29% of US counties, with wildfires, volcanic activity and avalanches scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $10 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations that included Jefferson County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5655-OR (Rowe Creek Fire Complex, declared 31 July 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 3 tornadoes touching Jefferson County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 24,472 Buildings worth $6.3 billion Area 1,810 sq mi Risk rank in Oregon 30 of 36 FIPS 41031
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 94.9 | $3.7 million | about once every 195 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Relatively Low | 87.6 | $6,990 | about once every 79 years | 12 |
| Avalanche | Relatively Low | 73.0 | $8,464 | about once every 30 years | 1 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 68.4 | $497,268 | about 11 a year | 22,720 strikes |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 64.4 | $630,975 | about once every 223 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 46.0 | $60,262 | about 15 a year | 280 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 42.9 | $871 | about once every 1.4 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 36.6 | $4.6 million | about once every 28 years | 1 |
| Hail | Very Low | 33.5 | $146,843 | about once every 2.5 years | 15 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 31.2 | $478,883 | about once every 3.6 years | 5.3 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 21.9 | $77,082 | about 3.1 a year | 36 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 19.8 | $17,209 | about once every 31 years | 2 |
| Drought | Very Low | 18.7 | $3,263 | about 61 a year | 1,988 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 13.2 | $113,665 | about once every 11 years | 4 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 3.0 | $7,099 | about once every 30 years | 2 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 20
Most common: Fire 13, Severe Storm 3, Flood 2, Coastal Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 6 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×2, Coastal Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 8 | Fire ×8 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Jefferson County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3228-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- Heavy Rains & Flooding (1964, DR-184-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2004, DR-1510-OR): 30 Oregon counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Oregon also had 33 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 3
| Tornadoes touching the county | 3 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×3 |
| Peak month | July (2) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 16 Jul 1993, F0, 0.5 mi path |
| Most recent | 28 Jul 2025, EF0, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Jefferson County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County (this page) | — | Very Low | 29.9 | Wildfire |
| Wasco County | 59 km | Relatively Low | 67.8 | Wildfire |
| Deschutes County | 79 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.9 | Wildfire |
| Crook County | 85 km | Very Low | 33.6 | Wildfire |
| Wheeler County | 91 km | Very Low | 7.2 | Wildfire |
| Sherman County | 94 km | Very Low | 2.9 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Oregon, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 28.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 31.1 |
| Community risk factor | 0.98 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $10 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Jefferson County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Oregon · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Volcanic activity: US volcano alerts
- Avalanche: Official warnings now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Jefferson County
What natural disasters is Jefferson County, Oregon most at risk from?
Jefferson County, Oregon has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 29.9 out of 100, higher than about 29% of US counties, with wildfires, volcanic activity and avalanches scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $10 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Jefferson County had?
OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations that included Jefferson County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5655-OR (Rowe Creek Fire Complex, declared 31 July 2026). Another 33 Oregon declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Jefferson County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 3 tornadoes touching Jefferson County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.