Erie County, Pennsylvania: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Erie County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.1 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with lightning, winter storms and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $48 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Erie County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3356-PA (Hurricane Sandy, declared 29 October 2012). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 21 tornadoes touching Erie County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Pennsylvania All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 270,695 Buildings worth $55 billion Area 1,574 sq mi Risk rank in Pennsylvania 19 of 67 FIPS 42049
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96.0 | $1.9 million | about 37 a year | 256,121 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 95.0 | $613,622 | about 3 a year | 292 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 93.7 | $2.4 million | about 1.4 a year | 27 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 90.7 | $38 million | about 2.1 a year | 60 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 71.1 | $597,610 | about once every 33 years | 10 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 70.1 | $201,736 | about 1.3 a year | 46 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 66.6 | $2.1 million | about once every 3.2 years | 15 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 60.1 | $417,256 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 51.9 | $259,467 | about 1.6 a year | 60 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 44.8 | $862 | about once every 3.8 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 40.6 | $216,143 | about once every 1.1 years | 9.2 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 38.9 | $579,699 | about 3.6 a year | 36 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 36.9 | $19,572 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Coastal flooding | Very Low | 36.4 | $8,468 | about once every 63 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 9
Most common: Hurricane 3, Flood 2, Snowstorm 2, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Snowstorm, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1990s | 2 | Flood, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 3 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 1 | Hurricane |
The last 9
Widest declarations that included Erie County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3356-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina (2005, EM-3235-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Tropical Depression Ivan (2004, DR-1557-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Depression Ivan (2004), Tropical Depression Frances (2004), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Pennsylvania also had 5 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 21
| Tornadoes touching the county | 21 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (5) |
| Deadliest | 18 Sep 1977, F2, 4.5 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured |
| Longest path | 2 Jun 1971, F3, 29.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 9 Jun 2025, EF2, 1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 22 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Erie County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | Lightning |
| Crawford County | 35 km | Relatively Low | 76.0 | Winter weather |
| Chautauqua County, NY | 61 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.6 | Inland flooding |
| Warren County | 66 km | Relatively Low | 65.6 | Inland flooding |
| Ashtabula County, OH | 67 km | Relatively Low | 62.6 | Winter weather |
| Venango County | 69 km | Relatively Low | 55.6 | Lightning |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Pennsylvania, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 53.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 84.9 |
| Community risk factor | 1.14 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $48 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Erie County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Pennsylvania · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Pennsylvania
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Erie County
What natural disasters is Erie County, Pennsylvania most at risk from?
Erie County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.1 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with lightning, winter storms and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $48 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Erie County had?
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Erie County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3356-PA (Hurricane Sandy, declared 29 October 2012). Another 5 Pennsylvania declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Erie County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 21 tornadoes touching Erie County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 18 Sep 1977, F2, 4.5 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.