Sullivan County, Tennessee: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Sullivan County, Tennessee has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 71.5 out of 100, higher than about 71% of US counties, with landslides, earthquakes and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $29 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Sullivan County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 2 tornadoes touching Sullivan County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Tennessee All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 158,067 Buildings worth $28 billion Area 434 sq mi Risk rank in Tennessee 25 of 95 FIPS 47163
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 94.4 | $104,552 | about 1.3 a year | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.2 | $3.3 million | about once every 461 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 86.9 | $1.7 million | about 3.3 a year | 123 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85.6 | $911,316 | about 5 a year | 225,865 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81.6 | $20 million | about 1.3 a year | 35 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 57.6 | $80,065 | about 7.7 a year | 146 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 54.7 | $112,928 | about once every 71 years | 8 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 48.8 | $858,905 | about once every 1.2 years | 16 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 47.2 | $1.1 million | about once every 15 years | 2 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 36.5 | $19,931 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 36.0 | $144,810 | about 3 a year | 116 |
| Drought | Very Low | 28.7 | $19,997 | about 14 a year | 434 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 27.5 | $26,055 | about once every 14 years | 5 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 18.5 | $50,910 | about once every 9.5 years | 2 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 10
Most common: Severe Storm 3, Winter Storm 2, Tropical Storm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Tornado, Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 2010s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 4 | Winter Storm ×2, Severe Storm, Tropical Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Sullivan County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, DR-4898-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3635-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3625-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Storm Helene (2024), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Tennessee also had 1 statewide declaration with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 2
| Tornadoes touching the county | 2 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×2 |
| Peak month | July (1) |
| Deadliest | 1 Oct 1977, F1, 16.2 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Longest path | 1 Oct 1977, F1, 16.2 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Most recent | 27 Jul 2014, EF1, 0.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 10 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Sullivan County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sullivan County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 71.5 | Landslide |
| Bristol City, VA | 17 km | Very Low | 8.6 | Earthquake |
| Carter County | 29 km | Relatively Low | 63.2 | Landslide |
| Washington County | 30 km | Relatively Low | 61.2 | Landslide |
| Scott County, VA | 35 km | Very Low | 42.0 | Landslide |
| Washington County, VA | 39 km | Relatively Low | 46.6 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Tennessee, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 44.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 40.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.10 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $29 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Sullivan County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Tennessee · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Sullivan County
What natural disasters is Sullivan County, Tennessee most at risk from?
Sullivan County, Tennessee has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 71.5 out of 100, higher than about 71% of US counties, with landslides, earthquakes and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $29 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Sullivan County had?
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Sullivan County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). Another 1 Tennessee declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Sullivan County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 2 tornadoes touching Sullivan County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 1 Oct 1977, F1, 16.2 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.