Carson County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carson County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 25.2 out of 100, higher than about 25% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $11 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Carson County since 1992, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5422-TX (North 207 Fire, declared 15 December 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 96 tornadoes touching Carson County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 5,799 Buildings worth $2.1 billion Area 933 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 181 of 254 FIPS 48065
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 97.8 | $5.9 million | about 83 a year | 2,331 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 86.9 | $1.1 million | about once every 146 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 80.0 | $1.2 million | about 9.2 a year | 349 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 60.3 | $123,561 | about 1 a year | 197 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 40.8 | $1.2 million | about once every 1.1 years | 73 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 34.6 | $466,847 | about 3.5 a year | 132 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 30.0 | $42,985 | about once every 2.6 years | 27 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 28.2 | $511,504 | about 2.5 a year | 47 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 24.8 | $60,331 | about once every 952 years | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 12.4 | $57,723 | about 49 a year | 60,580 strikes |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 10.4 | $26,094 | about 1.7 a year | 26 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 3.6 | $761,250 | about once every 1.9 years | 15 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.9 | $2 | about once every 7.8 years | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 13
Most common: Fire 5, Severe Ice Storm 3, Hurricane 3, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1990s | 3 | Fire, Severe Storm, Tornado |
| 2000s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Fire ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2010s | 1 | Fire |
| 2020s | 3 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Carson County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 96
| Tornadoes touching the county | 96 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×2 |
| Peak month | June (33) |
| Deadliest | 17 Apr 1970, F4, 130 mi path, 1 killed, 13 injured |
| Longest path | 17 Apr 1970, F4, 130 mi path, 1 killed, 13 injured |
| Most recent | 26 May 2025, unrated |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 39 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 66 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carson County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson County (this page) | — | Very Low | 25.2 | Drought |
| Hutchinson County | 49 km | Relatively Low | 67.7 | Drought |
| Armstrong County | 49 km | Very Low | 20.0 | Drought |
| Potter County | 49 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.5 | Winter weather |
| Gray County | 49 km | Relatively Low | 59.9 | Drought |
| Moore County | 69 km | Relatively Low | 61.9 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 11.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 71.3 |
| Community risk factor | 0.77 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $11 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carson County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carson County
What natural disasters is Carson County, Texas most at risk from?
Carson County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 25.2 out of 100, higher than about 25% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $11 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carson County had?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Carson County since 1992, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5422-TX (North 207 Fire, declared 15 December 2021). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carson County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 96 tornadoes touching Carson County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 17 Apr 1970, F4, 130 mi path, 1 killed, 13 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.