Collin County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Collin County, Texas has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.9 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with tornadoes, hail and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $716 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Collin County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 17 May 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 56 tornadoes touching Collin County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 1,063,649 Buildings worth $206 billion Area 895 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 6 of 254 FIPS 48085
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado | Very High | 99.9 | $420 million | about once every 1.2 years | 35 |
| Hail | Very High | 99.9 | $97 million | about 8.8 a year | 333 |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 97.7 | $18 million | about 18 a year | 303 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 96.8 | $153 million | about 2.1 a year | 59 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 95.7 | $19 million | about 1.1 a year | 20 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 91.5 | $1.5 million | about 1.2 a year | 83 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 91.1 | $625,226 | about 4.6 a year | 87 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 87.7 | $2.6 million | about 4.4 a year | 168 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 82.0 | $2.9 million | about once every 980 years | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81.0 | $634,965 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 67.7 | $649,884 | about 56 a year | 921,567 strikes |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 59.7 | $292,306 | about once every 79 years | 2 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.6 | $2,290 | about once every 8.6 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 32.4 | $46,676 | about 3 a year | 1,106 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 18
Most common: Hurricane 5, Severe Storm 4, Fire 3, Flood 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 4 | Severe Storm ×2, Fire, Drought |
| 2000s | 9 | Hurricane ×5, Fire ×2, Severe Storm, Other |
| 2020s | 3 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Collin County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 56
| Tornadoes touching the county | 56 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×5 |
| Peak month | April (12) |
| Deadliest | 9 May 2006, F3, 9.3 mi path, 3 killed, 10 injured |
| Longest path | 12 Oct 1969, F3, 45.9 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 30 Apr 2025, EF0, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 7 / 268 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 23 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Collin County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 98.9 | Tornado |
| Rockwall County | 36 km | Relatively Low | 70.7 | Tornado |
| Hunt County | 46 km | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | Ice storm |
| Grayson County | 50 km | Relatively Low | 80.3 | Hail |
| Dallas County | 51 km | Very High | 99.7 | Hail |
| Denton County | 51 km | Relatively High | 96.9 | Tornado |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 58.4 |
| Community risk factor | 0.73 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $716 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Collin County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Collin County
What natural disasters is Collin County, Texas most at risk from?
Collin County, Texas has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.9 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with tornadoes, hail and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $716 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Collin County had?
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Collin County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 17 May 2024). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Collin County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 56 tornadoes touching Collin County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 9 May 2006, F3, 9.3 mi path, 3 killed, 10 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.