Ellis County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Ellis County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 81.6 out of 100, higher than about 81% of US counties, with hail, heat waves and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $47 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Ellis County since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 17 May 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 64 tornadoes touching Ellis County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 192,122 Buildings worth $36 billion Area 962 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 46 of 254 FIPS 48139
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | Relatively High | 96.5 | $3.9 million | about 7.9 a year | 298 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 90.6 | $3.3 million | about 17 a year | 271 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.9 | $6.6 million | about once every 1.3 years | 15 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 87.8 | $6.4 million | about once every 1.1 years | 45 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 86.2 | $1.0 million | about 55 a year | 261,606 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 86.1 | $804,791 | about once every 714 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 83.5 | $24 million | about 2 a year | 57 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 63.6 | $106,367 | about 3.5 a year | 66 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 58.0 | $126,340 | about once a year | 69 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 52.2 | $92,005 | about once every 68 years | 4 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 51.1 | $303,188 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 41.9 | $446,899 | about 3.9 a year | 149 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 41.7 | $80,880 | about 29 a year | 1,253 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 39.2 | $640 | about once every 7.6 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Severe Storm 6, Fire 6, Hurricane 5, Severe Ice Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 5 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Drought |
| 2000s | 9 | Hurricane ×4, Fire ×3, Severe Storm, Other |
| 2010s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Fire |
| 2020s | 4 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Flood, Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Ellis County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 64
| Tornadoes touching the county | 64 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (23) |
| Deadliest | 26 Dec 2015, EF3, 8.5 mi path, 0 killed, 46 injured |
| Longest path | 26 May 1976, F4, 18.8 mi path |
| Most recent | 5 Mar 2024, EF0, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 116 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 33 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 6 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 6 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Ellis County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 81.6 | Hail |
| Navarro County | 45 km | Relatively Low | 75.3 | Tornado |
| Dallas County | 47 km | Very High | 99.7 | Hail |
| Hill County | 51 km | Relatively Low | 73.0 | Cold wave |
| Johnson County | 54 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.7 | Tornado |
| Kaufman County | 55 km | Relatively Low | 76.2 | Hail |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 35.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 75.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.01 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $47 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Ellis County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Ellis County
What natural disasters is Ellis County, Texas most at risk from?
Ellis County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 81.6 out of 100, higher than about 81% of US counties, with hail, heat waves and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $47 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Ellis County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Ellis County since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 17 May 2024). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Ellis County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 64 tornadoes touching Ellis County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 26 Dec 2015, EF3, 8.5 mi path, 0 killed, 46 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.