Montgomery County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Montgomery County, Texas has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 95.7 out of 100, higher than about 95% of US counties, with lightning, tornadoes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $222 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Montgomery County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5573-TX (Pauline Road Fire, declared 20 March 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 54 tornadoes touching Montgomery County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 620,016 Buildings worth $108 billion Area 1,088 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 14 of 254 FIPS 48339
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Very High | 99.7 | $8.6 million | about 7 a year | 496,926 strikes |
| Tornado | Very High | 99.4 | $62 million | about once every 1.1 years | 43 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 97.9 | $23 million | about once every 1.6 years | 12 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.8 | $7.9 million | about 12 a year | 198 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 95.6 | $94 million | about 1.7 a year | 47 |
| Ice storm | Very High | 95.2 | $1.9 million | about once every 1.1 years | 61 |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 93.7 | $18 million | about once every 7.0 years | 53 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 93.0 | $2.8 million | about 1.6 a year | 62 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 89.6 | $1.9 million | about 2.6 a year | 98 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 86.1 | $336,223 | about 1.5 a year | 28 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 79.3 | $426,215 | about once every 917 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 68.6 | $547,420 | about 17 a year | 721 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 66.0 | $713,358 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 53.3 | $1,889 | about once every 6.9 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 37
Most common: Hurricane 10, Fire 9, Flood 8, Severe Storm 5.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm |
| 1980s | 2 | Severe Storm, Hurricane |
| 1990s | 6 | Fire ×2, Flood ×2, Severe Storm, Drought |
| 2000s | 12 | Hurricane ×6, Fire ×3, Other, Severe Storm, Coastal Storm |
| 2010s | 8 | Flood ×3, Fire ×3, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 6 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Fire, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Montgomery County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Beryl (2024), Tropical Storm Imelda (2019), Hurricane Harvey (2017), Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Allison (2001), Tropical Storm Charley (1998), Hurricane Alicia (1983).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 54
| Tornadoes touching the county | 54 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×3 |
| Peak month | May (12) |
| Deadliest | 28 Dec 2024, EF3, 10.3 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Longest path | 28 Dec 2024, EF3, 10.3 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Most recent | 28 Dec 2024, EF3, 10.3 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 20 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 30 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Montgomery County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 95.7 | Lightning |
| San Jacinto County | 45 km | Relatively Low | 58.9 | Tornado |
| Walker County | 49 km | Relatively Low | 73.8 | Tornado |
| Harris County | 50 km | Very High | 99.9 | Hurricane |
| Grimes County | 54 km | Relatively Low | 57.0 | Drought |
| Waller County | 57 km | Relatively Low | 70.3 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 23.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 33.0 |
| Community risk factor | 0.93 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $222 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Montgomery County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Texas
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Montgomery County
What natural disasters is Montgomery County, Texas most at risk from?
Montgomery County, Texas has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 95.7 out of 100, higher than about 95% of US counties, with lightning, tornadoes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $222 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Montgomery County had?
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Montgomery County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5573-TX (Pauline Road Fire, declared 20 March 2025). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Montgomery County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 54 tornadoes touching Montgomery County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 28 Dec 2024, EF3, 10.3 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.