Randall County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Randall County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 86.8 out of 100, higher than about 86% of US counties, with winter storms, hail and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $70 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 16 federal disaster declarations that included Randall County since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5633-TX (Hunggate Fire, declared 14 May 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 90 tornadoes touching Randall County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 140,728 Buildings worth $24 billion Area 932 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 28 of 254 FIPS 48381
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Very High | 99.3 | $2.3 million | about 11 a year | 201 |
| Hail | Relatively High | 99.0 | $13 million | about 8.3 a year | 316 |
| Drought | Relatively High | 97.6 | $4.6 million | about 71 a year | 2,359 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 96.4 | $18 million | about once every 1.2 years | 62 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.9 | $5.0 million | about once every 109 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 95.5 | $3.6 million | about 3.3 a year | 128 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 89.9 | $7.9 million | about 2.4 a year | 46 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 73.9 | $1.2 million | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 73.6 | $625,949 | about 5 a year | 145,035 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 73.2 | $1.2 million | about 2.5 a year | 41 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 66.9 | $13 million | about 2.6 a year | 73 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 58.3 | $138,276 | about once every 2.9 years | 24 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 24.3 | $197 | about once every 8.8 years | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 16
Most common: Fire 7, Hurricane 4, Severe Ice Storm 3, Severe Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 2 | Fire, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 7 | Hurricane ×4, Fire ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Fire ×3 |
| 2020s | 3 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Randall County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 90
| Tornadoes touching the county | 90 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (42) |
| Deadliest | 5 May 2002, F2, 5 mi path, 2 killed, 4 injured |
| Longest path | 17 Apr 1970, F4, 130 mi path, 1 killed, 13 injured |
| Most recent | 25 Apr 2025, EF1, 0.9 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 4 / 30 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 60 | 16 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 9 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Randall County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 86.8 | Winter weather |
| Potter County | 48 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.5 | Winter weather |
| Armstrong County | 49 km | Very Low | 20.0 | Drought |
| Swisher County | 51 km | Very Low | 37.4 | Hail |
| Castro County | 59 km | Very Low | 34.4 | Hail |
| Deaf Smith County | 65 km | Relatively Low | 61.8 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 25.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 56.0 |
| Community risk factor | 0.94 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $70 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Randall County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Randall County
What natural disasters is Randall County, Texas most at risk from?
Randall County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 86.8 out of 100, higher than about 86% of US counties, with winter storms, hail and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $70 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Randall County had?
OpenFEMA lists 16 federal disaster declarations that included Randall County since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5633-TX (Hunggate Fire, declared 14 May 2026). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Randall County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 90 tornadoes touching Randall County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 5 May 2002, F2, 5 mi path, 2 killed, 4 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.