San Patricio County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
San Patricio County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 85.4 out of 100, higher than about 85% of US counties, with hurricanes, drought and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $39 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 32 federal disaster declarations that included San Patricio County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5552-TX (Welder Fire, declared 4 March 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 59 tornadoes touching San Patricio County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 68,653 Buildings worth $12 billion Area 715 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 34 of 254 FIPS 48409
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 95.0 | $16 million | about once every 7.8 years | 44 |
| Drought | Relatively High | 93.7 | $1.5 million | about 64 a year | 1,995 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 91.0 | $5.5 million | about 2.6 a year | 48 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.2 | $1.8 million | about 14 a year | 242 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 80.1 | $2.8 million | about once every 3.6 years | 37 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 73.8 | $11 million | about 2.5 a year | 71 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 67.5 | $350,214 | about 1.1 a year | 42 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 64.2 | $80,118 | about once every 312 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 58.4 | $219,616 | about 47 a year | 117,936 strikes |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 55.6 | $75,987 | about once every 3.0 years | 23 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 53.0 | $139,183 | about 3.7 a year | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 49.9 | $382,465 | about once every 1.2 years | 33 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 42.0 | $33,964 | about once every 1.2 years | 15 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 22.6 | $24,720 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 13.2 | $33 | about once every 16 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 32
Most common: Hurricane 18, Flood 5, Fire 3, Severe Storm 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood, Hurricane |
| 1970s | 2 | Flood, Hurricane |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood, Hurricane |
| 1990s | 3 | Hurricane, Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 15 | Hurricane ×9, Fire ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Coastal Storm, Flood |
| 2010s | 2 | Hurricane ×2 |
| 2020s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included San Patricio County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Beryl (2024), Hurricane Hanna (2020), Hurricane Harvey (2017), Tropical Storm Alex (2010), Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Dolly (2008), Hurricane Dean (2007), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Claudette (2003), Tropical Storm Fay (2002), Hurricane Bret (1999), Tropical Storm Charley (1998), Hurricane Allen (1980), Hurricane Celia (1970), Hurricane Beulah (1967).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 59
| Tornadoes touching the county | 59 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | May (13) |
| Deadliest | 22 Oct 1954, F3, 20.5 mi path, 0 killed, 25 injured |
| Longest path | 22 Oct 1954, F3, 20.5 mi path, 0 killed, 25 injured |
| Most recent | 25 Aug 2022, unrated, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 43 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 34 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How San Patricio County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Patricio County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 85.4 | Hurricane |
| Nueces County | 34 km | Relatively High | 96.6 | Cold wave |
| Refugio County | 49 km | Very Low | 37.5 | Hurricane |
| Bee County | 50 km | Relatively Low | 62.7 | Hurricane |
| Aransas County | 53 km | Relatively Low | 61.2 | Hurricane |
| Jim Wells County | 64 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | Cold wave |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 86.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 59.9 |
| Community risk factor | 1.50 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $39 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for San Patricio County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about San Patricio County
What natural disasters is San Patricio County, Texas most at risk from?
San Patricio County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 85.4 out of 100, higher than about 85% of US counties, with hurricanes, drought and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $39 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has San Patricio County had?
OpenFEMA lists 32 federal disaster declarations that included San Patricio County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5552-TX (Welder Fire, declared 4 March 2025). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit San Patricio County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 59 tornadoes touching San Patricio County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 22 Oct 1954, F3, 20.5 mi path, 0 killed, 25 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.