Chesterfield County, Virginia: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Chesterfield County, Virginia has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.8 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with earthquakes, inland (river and flash) flooding and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $79 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Chesterfield County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 20 tornadoes touching Chesterfield County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Virginia All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 364,108 Buildings worth $77 billion Area 441 sq mi Risk rank in Virginia 2 of 133 FIPS 51041
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 89.6 | $7.2 million | about once every 402 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 89.5 | $53 million | about 1.4 a year | 40 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 86.7 | $446,236 | about 5.3 a year | 100 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | $3.3 million | about 5.3 a year | 81 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 85.8 | $6.1 million | about once every 7.7 years | 46 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 83.4 | $766,558 | about 1.4 a year | 92 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 82.2 | $1.2 million | about 44 a year | 169,832 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 76.8 | $4.8 million | about once every 4.4 years | 17 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 68.5 | $1.3 million | about 1.2 a year | 47 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 59.7 | $395,772 | about 5.8 a year | 182 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 46.8 | $1,610 | about once every 4.1 years | — |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 44.8 | $66,940 | about 3.7 a year | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 44.4 | $304,531 | about 2.3 a year | 86 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 44.0 | $47,351 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 6.1 | $44,170 | about once every 2.1 years | 8.9 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 23
Most common: Hurricane 10, Snowstorm 3, Flood 3, Severe Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1970s | 5 | Drought ×2, Flood ×2, Freezing |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×3, Hurricane ×2 |
| 2000s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2010s | 5 | Hurricane ×5 |
| 2020s | 2 | Winter Storm, Severe Ice Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Chesterfield County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3631-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Florence (2018, EM-3403-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3359-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Storm Michael (2018), Hurricane Florence (2018), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Fran (1996), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Virginia also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 20
| Tornadoes touching the county | 20 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | August (4) |
| Deadliest | 6 Aug 1993, F4, 1 mi path, 4 killed, 246 injured |
| Longest path | 6 Aug 1993, F2, 38 mi path |
| Most recent | 17 Sep 2018, EF1, 8.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 5 / 254 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Chesterfield County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 84.8 | Earthquake |
| Richmond City | 19 km | Relatively Low | 78.4 | Earthquake |
| Colonial Heights City | 21 km | Very Low | 6.0 | Hurricane |
| Henrico County | 24 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | Earthquake |
| Petersburg City | 26 km | Very Low | 17.0 | Hurricane |
| Hopewell City | 27 km | Very Low | 17.2 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Virginia, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 59.1 |
| Community risk factor | 0.73 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $79 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Chesterfield County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Virginia · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Chesterfield County
What natural disasters is Chesterfield County, Virginia most at risk from?
Chesterfield County, Virginia has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.8 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with earthquakes, inland (river and flash) flooding and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $79 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Chesterfield County had?
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Chesterfield County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). Another 3 Virginia declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Chesterfield County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 20 tornadoes touching Chesterfield County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 6 Aug 1993, F4, 1 mi path, 4 killed, 246 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.