Frederick County, Virginia: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Frederick County, Virginia has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 44.7 out of 100, higher than about 44% of US counties, with landslides, hurricanes and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $20 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 17 federal disaster declarations that included Frederick County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 10 tornadoes touching Frederick County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Virginia All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 91,336 Buildings worth $19 billion Area 420 sq mi Risk rank in Virginia 46 of 133 FIPS 51069
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 79.7 | $21,500 | about once every 1.8 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 76.4 | $1.7 million | about once every 17 years | 18 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 73.0 | $874,435 | about 4.1 a year | 112 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 64.4 | $1.0 million | about 3.3 a year | 57 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 64.0 | $147,313 | about 13 a year | 250 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 60.0 | $13 million | about 2.5 a year | 71 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 59.7 | $633,416 | about once every 813 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 59.3 | $523,044 | about 2.9 a year | 110 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.8 | $105,223 | about once every 917 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 54.3 | $879,309 | about 5 a year | 192 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 47.2 | $297,471 | about 38 a year | 66,171 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 33.4 | $881,529 | about once every 5.6 years | 10 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 22.8 | $75 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 20.2 | $23,177 | about once every 2.7 years | 25 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 12.8 | $168,943 | about 1.9 a year | 37 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 17
Most common: Hurricane 6, Snowstorm 4, Severe Storm 3, Flood 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1990s | 4 | Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane, Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2010s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 1 | Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Frederick County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3631-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Florence (2018, EM-3403-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3359-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Florence (2018), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Fran (1996), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Virginia also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 10
| Tornadoes touching the county | 10 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (3) |
| Deadliest | 17 Sep 2004, F1, 9 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 17 Sep 2004, F1, 9 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 28 Apr 2011, EF0, 4.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 3 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Frederick County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 44.7 | Landslide |
| Winchester City | 8 km | Very Low | 16.9 | Hurricane |
| Clarke County | 25 km | Very Low | 6.9 | Drought |
| Hampshire County, WV | 33 km | Very Low | 38.0 | Landslide |
| Warren County | 33 km | Very Low | 31.6 | Landslide |
| Berkeley County, WV | 35 km | Relatively Low | 68.3 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Virginia, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 54.5 |
| Community risk factor | 0.74 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $20 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Frederick County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Virginia · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Drought: Drought monitor for Virginia
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Frederick County
What natural disasters is Frederick County, Virginia most at risk from?
Frederick County, Virginia has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 44.7 out of 100, higher than about 44% of US counties, with landslides, hurricanes and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $20 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Frederick County had?
OpenFEMA lists 17 federal disaster declarations that included Frederick County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). Another 3 Virginia declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Frederick County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 10 tornadoes touching Frederick County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 17 Sep 2004, F1, 9 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.