Winchester City, Virginia: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Winchester City, Virginia has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 16.9 out of 100, higher than about 16% of US counties, with hurricanes, earthquakes and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.1 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Winchester City since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Winchester City from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Virginia All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 28,110 Buildings worth $8.6 billion Area 9 sq mi Risk rank in Virginia 89 of 133 FIPS 51840
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 69.9 | $552,684 | about once every 19 years | 14 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 63.0 | $503,069 | about once every 820 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 50.0 | $59,654 | about 13 a year | 250 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 48.7 | $331,191 | about 3.3 a year | 57 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 44.3 | $436,249 | about 4.7 a year | 179 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 42.4 | $182,002 | about 2.8 a year | 105 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 31.9 | $3.5 million | about once every 2.3 years | 12 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 29.4 | $99,035 | about 38 a year | 19,110 strikes |
| Tornado | Very Low | 25.3 | $346,712 | about once every 271 years | 1 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 12.3 | $6,362 | about once every 3.0 years | 23 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 11.8 | $34 | about once every 200 years | — |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 10.5 | $75,802 | about 2 a year | 37 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 5.2 | $1,537 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about 3.9 a year | 112 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 12
Most common: Hurricane 4, Snowstorm 4, Severe Storm 2, Winter Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Snowstorm ×2 |
| 2000s | 3 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 5 | Hurricane ×2, Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 1 | Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Winchester City
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3631-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Florence (2018, EM-3403-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3359-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Florence (2018), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Virginia also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Winchester City between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Winchester City compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winchester City (this page) | — | Very Low | 16.9 | Hurricane |
| Frederick County | 8 km | Relatively Low | 44.7 | Landslide |
| Clarke County | 17 km | Very Low | 6.9 | Drought |
| Warren County | 30 km | Very Low | 31.6 | Landslide |
| Jefferson County, WV | 31 km | Relatively Low | 47.8 | Drought |
| Berkeley County, WV | 35 km | Relatively Low | 68.3 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Virginia, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 47.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 45.9 |
| Community risk factor | 1.12 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $6.1 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Winchester City's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Virginia · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Winchester City
What natural disasters is Winchester City, Virginia most at risk from?
Winchester City, Virginia has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 16.9 out of 100, higher than about 16% of US counties, with hurricanes, earthquakes and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.1 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Winchester City had?
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Winchester City since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). Another 3 Virginia declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Winchester City?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Winchester City from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.