Baldwin County, Alabama: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Baldwin County, Alabama has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.7 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with hurricanes, lightning and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $237 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Baldwin County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3656-AL (Hurricane Isaias, declared 9 October 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 114 tornadoes touching Baldwin County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 231,365 Buildings worth $52 billion Area 2,048 sq mi Risk rank in Alabama 3 of 67 FIPS 01003
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Very High | 99.2 | $159 million | about once every 4.2 years | 100 |
| Lightning | Very High | 98.9 | $4.1 million | about 84 a year | 548,407 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 92.8 | $9.0 million | about 1.3 a year | 82 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.2 | $48 million | about 3 a year | 83 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 92.2 | $3.6 million | about 9.3 a year | 121 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 90.8 | $1.5 million | about once every 318 years | — |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively High | 85.8 | $4.1 million | about 3.7 a year | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 85.1 | $1.6 million | about 1.9 a year | 60 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 80.3 | $3.7 million | about once every 1.2 years | 12 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 74.5 | $663,704 | about 16 a year | 609 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 72.4 | $915,653 | about once every 794 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 65.1 | $3,798 | about once every 3.5 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 63.2 | $414,072 | about 1.5 a year | 57 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 59.3 | $86,246 | about once every 1.5 years | 11 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 48.3 | $77,135 | about once every 5.5 years | 11 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 37
Most common: Hurricane 24, Severe Storm 8, Flood 2, Snowstorm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1970s | 5 | Flood ×2, Hurricane, Drought, Tornado |
| 1980s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1990s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Severe Storm ×2, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 12 | Hurricane ×9, Severe Storm ×3 |
| 2010s | 8 | Hurricane ×5, Severe Storm ×3 |
| 2020s | 4 | Hurricane ×4 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Baldwin County
- Hurricane Helene (2024, EM-3618-AL): 67 Alabama counties designated.
- Hurricane Sally (2020, EM-3545-AL): 67 Alabama counties designated.
- Hurricane Irma (2017, EM-3389-AL): 67 Alabama counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Isaias (2026), Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Sally (2020), Hurricane Michael (2018), Hurricane Nate (2017), Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Isaac (2012), Tropical Storm Ida (2009), Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Dennis (2005), Hurricane Ivan (2004), Tropical Storm Isidore (2002), Hurricane Georges (1998), Hurricane Opal (1995), Hurricane Elena (1985), Hurricane Frederic (1979), Hurricane Camille (1969).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Alabama also had 1 statewide declaration with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 114
| Tornadoes touching the county | 114 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | October (20) |
| Deadliest | 10 Feb 1981, F2, 1.5 mi path, 0 killed, 62 injured |
| Longest path | 3 Nov 1968, F3, 70.4 mi path, 0 killed, 18 injured |
| Most recent | 26 Oct 2025, EF1, 1.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 102 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 59 | 38 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 17 | 22 | 9 | 20 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Baldwin County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baldwin County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 96.7 | Hurricane |
| Escambia County, FL | 33 km | Relatively High | 95.1 | Lightning |
| Mobile County | 47 km | Relatively High | 98.0 | Hurricane |
| Santa Rosa County, FL | 67 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.0 | Hurricane |
| Escambia County | 69 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.0 | Hurricane |
| Washington County | 88 km | Relatively Low | 45.6 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Alabama, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 44.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 93.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.07 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $237 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Baldwin County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Alabama · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Alabama
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Baldwin County
What natural disasters is Baldwin County, Alabama most at risk from?
Baldwin County, Alabama has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.7 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with hurricanes, lightning and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $237 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Baldwin County had?
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Baldwin County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3656-AL (Hurricane Isaias, declared 9 October 2026). Another 1 Alabama declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Baldwin County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 114 tornadoes touching Baldwin County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 10 Feb 1981, F2, 1.5 mi path, 0 killed, 62 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.