Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 1.2 out of 100, higher than about 1% of US counties, with earthquakes, volcanic activity and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $1.4 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 2 federal disaster declarations that included Bristol Bay Borough since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-1316-AK (Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches, declared 17 February 2000). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Bristol Bay Borough from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Alaska All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 843 Buildings worth $732 million Area 857 sq mi Risk rank in Alaska 27 of 30 FIPS 02060
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 71.9 | $864,732 | about once every 18 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 46.3 | $9 | about once every 213 years | 20 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 34.4 | $491,099 | about 2.8 a year | 32 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 34.2 | $17,520 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 19.7 | $16,426 | about 14 a year | 159 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 3.3 | $4 | about once every 94 years | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.3 | — | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 0 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 0.2 | $915 | about 6.7 a year | 960 strikes |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 0.1 | $70 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Hail | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Inland flooding | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Strong wind | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Heat wave | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 2
Most common: Severe Storm 1, Freezing 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Freezing |
| 2000s | 1 | Severe Storm |
The last 2
Widest declarations that included Bristol Bay Borough
- Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches (2000, DR-1316-AK): 15 Alaska counties designated.
- Freeze in Spawning Areas of Red Salmon (1974, DR-444-AK): 1 Alaska counties designated.
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Alaska also had 24 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Bristol Bay Borough between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Bristol Bay Borough compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Bay Borough (this page) | — | Very Low | 1.2 | Earthquake |
| Lake and Peninsula Borough | 31 km | Very Low | 6.3 | Volcanic activity |
| Dillingham Census Area | 148 km | Very Low | 35.7 | Cold wave |
| Kodiak Island Borough | 205 km | Relatively Low | 65.1 | Landslide |
| Bethel Census Area | 297 km | Relatively Low | 44.3 | Cold wave |
| Kenai Peninsula Borough | 336 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.0 | Avalanche |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Alaska, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 44.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 29.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.10 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $1.4 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Bristol Bay Borough's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Alaska · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Volcanic activity: US volcano alerts
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Bristol Bay Borough
What natural disasters is Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska most at risk from?
Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 1.2 out of 100, higher than about 1% of US counties, with earthquakes, volcanic activity and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $1.4 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Bristol Bay Borough had?
OpenFEMA lists 2 federal disaster declarations that included Bristol Bay Borough since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-1316-AK (Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches, declared 17 February 2000). Another 24 Alaska declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Bristol Bay Borough?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Bristol Bay Borough from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.