Saguache County, Colorado: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Saguache County, Colorado has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 14.2 out of 100, higher than about 14% of US counties, with landslides, avalanches and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $5.0 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Saguache County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4229-CO (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 16 July 2015). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 7 tornadoes touching Saguache County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Colorado All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 6,323 Buildings worth $2.1 billion Area 3,202 sq mi Risk rank in Colorado 46 of 64 FIPS 08109
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 96.2 | $163,189 | about once every 1.1 years | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively Moderate | 84.8 | $847,841 | about once every 6.0 years | 5 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | $1.0 million | about 87 a year | 2,366 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 76.2 | $539,954 | about 6 a year | 68,467 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 64.1 | $98,109 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 37.1 | $108,612 | about once every 599 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 27.4 | $315,814 | about once every 1.4 years | 13 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 20.3 | $15,295 | about 14 a year | 273 |
| Hail | Very Low | 19.4 | $59,411 | about once every 1.8 years | 21 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 17.5 | $1.8 million | about once every 4.0 years | 7 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 12.1 | — | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 8.4 | $11,084 | about once every 8.0 years | 2.4 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.0 | $37,193 | about once every 5.1 years | 4 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 5.7 | $2,294 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 2.3 | $9,332 | about once every 15 years | 3 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 7
Most common: Flood 3, Coastal Storm 1, Snowstorm 1, Fire 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 3 | Coastal Storm, Snowstorm, Fire |
| 2010s | 1 | Flood |
The last 7
Widest declarations that included Saguache County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3224-CO): 64 Colorado counties designated.
- Wildfires (2002, DR-1421-CO): 58 Colorado counties designated.
- Drought (1977, EM-3025-CO): 42 Colorado counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Colorado also had 12 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 7
| Tornadoes touching the county | 7 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×3 |
| Peak month | June (4) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 10 Jun 1980, F1, 19.9 mi path |
| Most recent | 13 Sep 2025, EF1, 0.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Saguache County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saguache County (this page) | — | Very Low | 14.2 | Landslide |
| Rio Grande County | 56 km | Relatively Low | 45.8 | Landslide |
| Alamosa County | 71 km | Very Low | 40.4 | Drought |
| Mineral County | 73 km | Very Low | 5.4 | Avalanche |
| Chaffee County | 74 km | Relatively Low | 51.1 | Landslide |
| Custer County | 80 km | Very Low | 3.9 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Colorado, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 55.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 10.7 |
| Community risk factor | 1.21 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $5.0 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Saguache County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Colorado · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Avalanche: Official warnings now
- Drought: Drought monitor for Colorado
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Saguache County
What natural disasters is Saguache County, Colorado most at risk from?
Saguache County, Colorado has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 14.2 out of 100, higher than about 14% of US counties, with landslides, avalanches and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $5.0 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Saguache County had?
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Saguache County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4229-CO (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 16 July 2015). Another 12 Colorado declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Saguache County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 7 tornadoes touching Saguache County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.