San Juan County, Colorado: Natural Disaster Risk and History
San Juan County, Colorado has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 10.7 out of 100, higher than about 10% of US counties, with avalanches, landslides and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.9 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 4 federal disaster declarations that included San Juan County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3224-CO (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 5 September 2005). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching San Juan County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Colorado All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 699 Buildings worth $397 million Area 392 sq mi Risk rank in Colorado 52 of 64 FIPS 08111
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | Very High | 95.8 | $5.8 million | about once every 1.3 years | 24 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 64.3 | $5,094 | about once every 3.0 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 36.4 | $196,084 | about 55 a year | 9,318 strikes |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 33.6 | $25,015 | about once every 877 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 11.0 | $15,330 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 4.6 | $4,571 | about 45 a year | 854 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 4.0 | $860,481 | about once every 5.6 years | 5 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1.6 | $2,207 | about once every 132 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 1.0 | $1,149 | about once every 10 years | 4 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.0 | $834 | about once every 8.8 years | 4.3 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 0.4 | $405 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Cold wave | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about 66 a year | 1,659 |
| Heat wave | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 4
Most common: Flood 2, Coastal Storm 1, Fire 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 2000s | 2 | Coastal Storm, Fire |
The last 4
Widest declarations that included San Juan County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3224-CO): 64 Colorado counties designated.
- Wildfires (2002, DR-1421-CO): 58 Colorado counties designated.
- Flooding & Landslides (1973, DR-396-CO): 16 Colorado counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Colorado also had 12 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched San Juan County between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How San Juan County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Juan County (this page) | — | Very Low | 10.7 | Avalanche |
| Hinsdale County | 34 km | Very Low | 1.0 | Landslide |
| Ouray County | 44 km | Very Low | 17.7 | Landslide |
| La Plata County | 55 km | Relatively Low | 75.2 | Wildfire |
| Mineral County | 67 km | Very Low | 5.4 | Avalanche |
| San Miguel County | 69 km | Very Low | 19.1 | Avalanche |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Colorado, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 47.3 |
| Community risk factor | 0.75 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $6.9 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for San Juan County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Colorado · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Avalanche: Official warnings now
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Colorado
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about San Juan County
What natural disasters is San Juan County, Colorado most at risk from?
San Juan County, Colorado has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 10.7 out of 100, higher than about 10% of US counties, with avalanches, landslides and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.9 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has San Juan County had?
OpenFEMA lists 4 federal disaster declarations that included San Juan County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3224-CO (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 5 September 2005). Another 12 Colorado declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit San Juan County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching San Juan County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.