Duval County, Florida: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Duval County, Florida has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 97.2 out of 100, higher than about 97% of US counties, with cold waves, lightning and hurricanes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $264 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 39 federal disaster declarations that included Duval County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton, declared 11 October 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 80 tornadoes touching Duval County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 994,675 Buildings worth $178 billion Area 928 sq mi Risk rank in Florida 12 of 67 FIPS 12031
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 98.5 | $26 million | about 3 a year | 56 |
| Lightning | Very High | 98.5 | $3.6 million | about 71 a year | 875,600 strikes |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 97.7 | $65 million | about once every 3.8 years | 92 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 97.6 | $134 million | about 3.5 a year | 97 |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 96.8 | $8.7 million | about 4.6 a year | 77 |
| Hail | Relatively High | 96.2 | $3.6 million | about 1.8 a year | 68 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 91.5 | $8.0 million | about once every 2.3 years | 46 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively High | 91.0 | $6.5 million | about 2.8 a year | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.2 | $5.4 million | about once every 952 years | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | $1.4 million | about once every 599 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 81.8 | $1.4 million | about once every 1.1 years | 34 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 41.9 | $751 | about once every 11 years | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 21.3 | $5,528 | about 15 a year | 588 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 17.0 | $11,989 | about once every 36 years | 1 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 7.9 | $5,898 | about once every 9.4 years | 2 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 39
Most common: Hurricane 22, Severe Storm 7, Tropical Storm 4, Fire 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1990s | 9 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane ×2, Tornado |
| 2000s | 9 | Hurricane ×5, Severe Storm ×2, Freezing, Fire |
| 2010s | 7 | Hurricane ×6, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 13 | Hurricane ×8, Tropical Storm ×4, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Duval County
- Hurricane Ian (2022, DR-4673-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Tropical Storm Ian (2022, EM-3584-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Hurricane Dorian (2019, EM-3419-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Milton (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Idalia (2023), Tropical Storm Idalia (2023), Hurricane Nicole (2022), Tropical Storm Nicole (2022), Hurricane Ian (2022), Tropical Storm Ian (2022), Tropical Storm Elsa (2021), Hurricane Isaias (2020), Hurricane Dorian (2019), Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Matthew (2016), Tropical Storm Debby (2012), Tropical Storm Fay (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Jeanne (2004), Hurricane Ivan (2004), Hurricane Frances (2004), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2004), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Tropical Storm Josephine (1996), Hurricane Gladys (1968).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Florida also had 31 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 80
| Tornadoes touching the county | 80 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×9 |
| Peak month | June (18) |
| Deadliest | 11 Jun 2001, F0, 0.1 mi path, 1 killed, 0 injured |
| Longest path | 6 Jun 2013, EF1, 18.9 mi path |
| Most recent | 28 Jun 2024, EF1, 1.4 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 13 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 45 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 8 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 9 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Duval County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duval County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 97.2 | Cold wave |
| Nassau County | 34 km | Relatively Low | 59.3 | Hurricane |
| Clay County | 42 km | Relatively Moderate | 81.1 | Lightning |
| St. Johns County | 53 km | Relatively Moderate | 87.5 | Hurricane |
| Baker County | 59 km | Very Low | 13.3 | Wildfire |
| Bradford County | 64 km | Very Low | 36.9 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Florida, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 39.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 62.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.05 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $264 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Duval County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Florida · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Florida
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Duval County
What natural disasters is Duval County, Florida most at risk from?
Duval County, Florida has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 97.2 out of 100, higher than about 97% of US counties, with cold waves, lightning and hurricanes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $264 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Duval County had?
OpenFEMA lists 39 federal disaster declarations that included Duval County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton, declared 11 October 2024). Another 31 Florida declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Duval County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 80 tornadoes touching Duval County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 11 Jun 2001, F0, 0.1 mi path, 1 killed, 0 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.