Osceola County, Florida: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Osceola County, Florida has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 92.0 out of 100, higher than about 92% of US counties, with strong winds, lightning and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $118 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Osceola County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton, declared 11 October 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 44 tornadoes touching Osceola County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 387,795 Buildings worth $57 billion Area 1,521 sq mi Risk rank in Florida 26 of 67 FIPS 12097
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Very High | 99.8 | $27 million | about once every 1.1 years | 37 |
| Lightning | Very High | 98.5 | $3.9 million | about 88 a year | 537,357 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 94.8 | $3.6 million | about once every 85 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 94.2 | $18 million | about once every 3.8 years | 120 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 93.6 | $11 million | about 1.1 a year | 28 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.1 | $52 million | about once every 1.6 years | 17 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 77.3 | $1.4 million | about 2 a year | 28 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 46.6 | $1,173 | about once every 7.1 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 46.5 | $242,752 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 43.4 | $94,937 | about 21 a year | 686 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 34.1 | $537,584 | about 3.6 a year | 69 |
| Hail | Very Low | 21.9 | $83,493 | about 2 a year | 76 |
| Winter weather | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 37
Most common: Hurricane 21, Fire 5, Tropical Storm 4, Freezing 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Freezing |
| 1980s | 1 | Freezing |
| 1990s | 7 | Fire ×3, Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm, Freezing |
| 2000s | 11 | Hurricane ×6, Severe Storm ×2, Fire ×2, Freezing |
| 2010s | 6 | Hurricane ×6 |
| 2020s | 11 | Hurricane ×7, Tropical Storm ×4 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Osceola County
- Hurricane Ian (2022, DR-4673-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Tropical Storm Ian (2022, EM-3584-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Hurricane Dorian (2019, EM-3419-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Milton (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Idalia (2023), Tropical Storm Idalia (2023), Hurricane Nicole (2022), Tropical Storm Nicole (2022), Hurricane Ian (2022), Tropical Storm Ian (2022), Hurricane Isaias (2020), Hurricane Dorian (2019), Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Matthew (2016), Tropical Storm Fay (2008), Hurricane Wilma (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Jeanne (2004), Hurricane Ivan (2004), Hurricane Frances (2004), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2004), Hurricane Irene (1999), Tropical Storm Irene (1999).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Florida also had 31 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 44
| Tornadoes touching the county | 44 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | August (9) |
| Deadliest | 22 Feb 1998, F3, 28 mi path, 25 killed, 150 injured |
| Longest path | 4 Apr 1966, F4, 135.8 mi path, 11 killed, 530 injured |
| Most recent | 4 Aug 2025, unrated, 2.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 36 / 704 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 22 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Osceola County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osceola County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 92.0 | Strong wind |
| Brevard County | 45 km | Relatively High | 98.4 | Hurricane |
| Orange County | 52 km | Relatively High | 98.4 | Strong wind |
| Polk County | 55 km | Relatively High | 96.5 | Strong wind |
| Indian River County | 67 km | Relatively High | 95.6 | Hurricane |
| Seminole County | 73 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.4 | Tornado |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Florida, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 29.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 33.5 |
| Community risk factor | 0.98 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $118 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Osceola County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Florida · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Florida
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Osceola County
What natural disasters is Osceola County, Florida most at risk from?
Osceola County, Florida has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 92.0 out of 100, higher than about 92% of US counties, with strong winds, lightning and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $118 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Osceola County had?
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Osceola County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton, declared 11 October 2024). Another 31 Florida declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Osceola County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 44 tornadoes touching Osceola County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 22 Feb 1998, F3, 28 mi path, 25 killed, 150 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.