Polk County, Florida: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Polk County, Florida has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.5 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with strong winds, lightning and hurricanes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $213 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 40 federal disaster declarations that included Polk County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton, declared 11 October 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 171 tornadoes touching Polk County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 721,918 Buildings worth $113 billion Area 2,031 sq mi Risk rank in Florida 13 of 67 FIPS 12105
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Very High | 99.9 | $25 million | about once a year | 38 |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.6 | $6.4 million | about 96 a year | 1,425,677 strikes |
| Hurricane | Very High | 98.5 | $92 million | about once every 3.9 years | 114 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 97.0 | $6.7 million | about once every 111 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 94.6 | $65 million | about 1.4 a year | 38 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 93.9 | $9.4 million | about 2 a year | 117 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 93.6 | $4.3 million | about 3.2 a year | 50 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 76.1 | $2.6 million | about 4.3 a year | 81 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 73.4 | $595,907 | about 2.2 a year | 84 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 71.9 | $533,395 | about 15 a year | 616 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 64.2 | $3,310 | about once every 4.3 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 52.4 | $281,424 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Winter weather | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 40
Most common: Hurricane 18, Fire 7, Severe Storm 5, Freezing 5.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Severe Storm, Freezing |
| 1980s | 2 | Freezing ×2 |
| 1990s | 8 | Fire ×3, Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm, Tornado, Freezing |
| 2000s | 12 | Hurricane ×6, Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×2, Freezing |
| 2010s | 6 | Hurricane ×4, Fire, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 10 | Hurricane ×6, Tropical Storm ×4 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Polk County
- Hurricane Ian (2022, DR-4673-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Tropical Storm Ian (2022, EM-3584-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Hurricane Dorian (2019, EM-3419-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Milton (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Idalia (2023), Tropical Storm Idalia (2023), Hurricane Nicole (2022), Tropical Storm Nicole (2022), Hurricane Ian (2022), Tropical Storm Ian (2022), Hurricane Dorian (2019), Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Matthew (2016), Tropical Storm Debby (2012), Tropical Storm Fay (2008), Hurricane Wilma (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Jeanne (2004), Hurricane Ivan (2004), Hurricane Frances (2004), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2004), Hurricane Irene (1999), Tropical Storm Irene (1999).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Florida also had 31 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 171
| Tornadoes touching the county | 171 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×2 |
| Peak month | June (37) |
| Deadliest | 4 Apr 1966, F4, 135.8 mi path, 11 killed, 530 injured |
| Longest path | 4 Apr 1966, F4, 135.8 mi path, 11 killed, 530 injured |
| Most recent | 26 Sep 2024, EF0, 1.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 12 / 620 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 108 | 45 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 10 | 15 | 22 | 31 | 52 | 23 | 12 | 6 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Polk County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polk County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 96.5 | Strong wind |
| Hardee County | 52 km | Relatively Low | 69.2 | Strong wind |
| Osceola County | 55 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.0 | Strong wind |
| Hillsborough County | 60 km | Relatively High | 98.8 | Lightning |
| Orange County | 73 km | Relatively High | 98.4 | Strong wind |
| Highlands County | 76 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Florida, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 49.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 27.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.15 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $213 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Polk County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Florida · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Florida
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Polk County
What natural disasters is Polk County, Florida most at risk from?
Polk County, Florida has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 96.5 out of 100, higher than about 96% of US counties, with strong winds, lightning and hurricanes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $213 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Polk County had?
OpenFEMA lists 40 federal disaster declarations that included Polk County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton, declared 11 October 2024). Another 31 Florida declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Polk County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 171 tornadoes touching Polk County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 4 Apr 1966, F4, 135.8 mi path, 11 killed, 530 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.